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Bitcoin (BTC) market sentiment remains erratic, as the wild volatility experienced this month looks set to continue. BTC had seen a spectacular collapse to a six-month low but quickly regained ground.
However, it now finds itself struggling to restore its bullish narrative. Some analysts have speculated BTC could drop as low as $52,000 as worsening US macroeconomic data and changes in the Bitcoin options market could intensify BTC’s price weakness.
Bitcoin is currently trading just above the $59,000 price level and has increased by 1.25% over the past 24 hours.
A Battle Between Bulls And Bears
As Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies face a volatile market, the stage is set for a tussle between the bulls and the bears. However, several factors could dictate price movements and spring up a surprise. One of the biggest among these is the macroeconomic data from the United States. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on August 14, will be on every analyst’s radar amid controversy and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s handling of global market instability. The CPI comes just a day after the Producer Price Index, while the end of the week will see job data rollout.
The CPI and PPI data could not come at a worse time for traders. This is because any surprise in the numbers will add to an already complicated scenario when it comes to US inflation, with the Federal Reserve already under pressure to lower interest rates in September. The Kobeissi letter summarized all the key events set for this week, outlining that it was a busy week ahead. However, with the CPI predicted to continue to drop, the Fed looks likely to consider a rate cut. Charlie Billelo, the chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, put fuel as a factor in the Fed’s dovish stance.
“Gas prices in the US have moved down to $3.45 per gallon (national average) from $3.82/gallon a year ago (10% decline). If this holds, it will likely be a factor in pushing down headline CPI for August (Cleveland Fed is currently forecasting 2.7%), solidifying the Fed’s rate cut.”
Economic Downturn A Risk For BTC
Bitcoin (BTC) traders are wondering if the cryptocurrency could retest the $49,000 low, given the declining interest in leveraged BTC long positions and the risk of a correction in the global stock markets. JPMorgan also increased the probability of a US recession, citing weak labor market conditions and a restrictive Fed policy. Fed Governor Michelle Browman stated on August 10 that the inflation risk persists and the labor market remains weak, reducing the chances of a September rate cut.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading under the $60,000 price level, having been unsuccessful in reclaiming it so far despite a recovery on Monday. Bulls attempted to push the price above $60,000, but with increased levels of volatility, traders remained on edge. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which had hit a low of 17/100 on August 6, recovered on August 9. However, it has slid back into the fear zone and was at 25/100 on August 12. Currently, it sits at 31/100, which indicates that bearishness still prevails in the market. The question market watchers are asking is if BTC can reclaim the $60,000 price level. So far, the outlook remains uncertain. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have reported significantly lesser inflows over the past few days, hinting at investor uncertainty. According to LookOnChain, institutions have also halted stablecoin purchases, further fueling negative sentiment.
Source: TradingView
As we can see in the price chart above, BTC dipped to a low of $49,351 last Monday but quickly recovered despite heightened market volatility. Buyers had achieved an intraday high of $57,833 before bears pushed it down to $55,144. BTC made a stellar recovery on Thursday as markets became bullish, rising by 12% to $61,763. However, it could not push above the 200-day SMA, which acted as a dynamic resistance level. As a result, the price turned bearish on Friday, dropping to $60,932, although buyers managed to keep it above $60,000.
However, they lost the level on Sunday after BTC plunged by almost 4% to $58,775. The market’s volatility was on full display on Monday as BTC reached an intra-day high of $60,749 and a low of $57,724. Eventually, BTC could register an increase of 1.08% and settle at $59,410. However, the $60,000 price level proved a bridge too far under present conditions, with BTC marginally down during the current session. If BTC can consolidate above $59,000, buyers could attempt a break above the $60,000 level. A strong breakout above the $60,000 and $62,000 price level could hint at a reversal and signal the end of the current downward trend.
However, BTC’s current bearish outlook looks strong, as it faces stubborn resistance at $60,000 and $62,000. A break below current levels could see BTC drop below $57,000. A drop below this level could accelerate BTC’s decline towards $50,000 and a retest of its $49,000 support level.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) is finding it challenging to push above the $2,700-$2,800 zone, with sellers defending upper levels fiercely. However, the price has found support around the $2,500 mark, with bulls preventing ETH from slipping below this price level. After a staggering drop that saw ETH hit a low of $2,131 on August 5, ETH managed to make a strong recovery and climbed above $2,500 on Thursday after an increase of almost 15% and settled at $2,684. However, the recovery lost steam as markets slipped into the red on Friday. As a result, ETH dropped by just over 3% to $2,601. The weekend remained bearish, with ETH registering a marginal increase on Saturday before dropping by 2.09% to finish the weekend at $2,556.
Source: TradingView
With the market recovery on Monday, ETH registered an increase of 6.52%, pushing the price above $2,700 and settling at $2,723. However, with sellers defending upper levels, ETH has fallen back in the red during the ongoing session and is currently down by almost 3% and trading at $2,648. Buyers must keep ETH above $2,500 if any push above the $2,700-$2,800 zone is to materialize. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense of this level. However, if buyers can push above them, it could open the doors to an ascent to the $3,000 level. However, if the price drops from the $2,800 level, ETH could drop to $2,500. If sellers manage to breach this support level, a drop towards $2,200 can be expected.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) is looking to reclaim the $150 price level to counter growing bearish sentiment. SOL’s breakout on Thursday saw the altcoin register a staggering jump of almost 13%, which allowed it to push above the $160 price mark and settle at $163. However, SOL turned bearish, as strong selling pressure at these levels pushed the price down over 4% on Friday to $156. SOL remained in the red on Saturday as well, dropping by 1.48% to settle at $154.11, managing to stay just above the 50-day SMA.
Source: TradingView
SOL slipped below $150 on Sunday as bearish sentiment intensified, driving the price down by 8.12% to $141.59. The price recovered on Monday, registering an increase of 4.79% to $146.38. Buyers attempted a move above $150, but intense selling pressure forced the price down, as can be seen in the price chart. The current session sees SOL marginally down as buyers and sellers attempt to take control. Bulls have failed to push SOL above the moving averages, indicating that sellers currently have the advantage.
If sellers take control, they will attempt to yank SOL towards the $130 support level. If this level is breached, SOL could drop towards $110. However, buyers are expected to defend both levels because a break could mark the beginning of increased selling pressure, which could drag SOL below $100. What happens if buyers take control? If buyers take control of the session, SOL will look to reclaim the $150 and $155 price levels. A break above both levels could open the door for a push above $160.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) registered a strong rally on Thursday, rising to $0.35 after an 8.32% increase. However, the price turned bearish after reaching this level, indicating strong selling on rallies. Bears drove the price to an intra-day low of $0.337 on Friday before buyers propped the price up to $0.349, a marginal decline compared to Thursday. After registering another marginal decline on Saturday, sellers took control after sellers failed to push above the resistance at $0.35 once again. As a result, ADA dropped by 5.20% to $0.328. The price recovered on Monday, rising by 3.66% to $0.340.
Source: TradingView
However, it is back in the red during the current session and is down by just over 1%. Sellers will attempt to drag ADA towards $0.30. A break below this level could see ADA drop towards $0.25. If buyers are able to regain control and break above $0.35, it means sellers are losing momentum. In such a scenario, ADA could push up to $0.40.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Analysis
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been resilient in the face of several factors that could have negatively impacted its price. The altcoin is up almost 9% after enduring a testing time during the recent market downturn. However, it has recovered well, and even Mt. Gox payments involving BCH have not had too much of an adverse impact on its price. BCH has been trading between $300 and $370, facing strong upper-level resistance. BCH registered a strong recovery on Thursday after spending considerable time in the red, rising over 13% to $353. Buyers were able to push BCH to an intra-day high of $371, but sellers forced the price back down.
Source: TradingView
The price saw a decline of 1.47% on Friday and an increase of 2.01% on Saturday to settle at $354. However, markets turned bearish once again on Sunday, as BCH fell over 7% to slip below $350 and settle at $329. A quick recovery followed on Monday, allowing BCH to erase the previous session’s losses and climb to $355, an increase of 7.69%. The current session sees BCH down by almost 3% as bears took control after a failed push above the moving averages. If sellers continue to control the session, they could push the price down to $300, a level that buyers are expected to defend vigorously. Buyers could mount a move towards $400, but only if they can push the price above the moving averages, something they have failed to do so far.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been unable to make any substantial push above $0.100 as it faces considerable selling pressure at $0.110. After surging over 12% on Thursday, DOGE encountered selling pressure at higher levels. As a result, the price turned bearish, and DOGE dropped by almost 4% on Friday. Saturday saw a marginal recovery before the price fell back in the red, falling by 4,17% to $0.101. Despite selling pressure, buyers kept DOGE above $0.100.
Source: TradingView
DOGE registered a strong recovery on Monday, rising by 6.44% to $0.107. However, buyers were once again unsuccessful in pushing above $0.110. The current session sees DOGE down by almost 3% and trading at $0.104. If buyers push DOGE above $0.110, we could see the price move towards $0.120. However, a downturn and a break below $0.100 would suggest that sellers are in control.
Maker (MKR) Price Analysis
Maker (MKR) is struggling to reclaim the $2,000 price level as sellers look to drive the price towards $1,800 and below. MKR had been facing significant bearish pressure, which saw its price drop from above $2,700 to a low of $1,757 on Wednesday. MKR recovered from this level, surging over 14% on Thursday to push above $2,000 and settle at $2,052. However, the price fell back on Friday due to significant selling pressure, dropping to $2,006. MKR continued to drop over the weekend by 1.59% on Saturday and 4.45% on Sunday to settle at $1,886.
Source: TradingView
The current week began with MKR making a strong recovery, rising by almost 7% to move back above $2,000 and settle at $2,017. However, sellers have retaken control during the current session, pushing the price down by just over 1% to $1,995. MKR must break and close above $2,000 to recover the losses from the beginning of August. If the current selling pressure continues, MKR could drop back to $1,800.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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