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Analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared his thoughts on the potential future of ETH and BTC, suggesting that while he doesn’t expect a drastic price drop, there’s still a chance for more downturns before things turn around. Here’s a breakdown of his analysis:
ETH/BTC Bottoming Out
Cowen said that the ETH/BTC pair may be approaching a bottom, citing past trends where Ethereum has experienced explosive rallies after hitting a low. He pointed to 2019, when Ethereum surged 33% after bottoming out against Bitcoin.
Current Situation: ETH is already up 26-27% from its recent low against Bitcoin. If the ETH/BTC pair holds above its 50-day moving average, Cowen believes we could see more upside.
Resistance Levels: The next resistance level for ETH/BTC is around 0.042–0.043, the Bull Market Support Band. If ETH can break through this, it may signal further bullish movement.
Bitcoin Dominance and Its Impact on ETH
Cowen said that Bitcoin dominance typically rises toward the end of the Bitcoin halving year (Q4), but this year’s dominance has behaved unpredictably.
Bitcoin Dominance in 2024: While dominance usually increases in the last quarter, it’s been fluctuating more than usual this year. Cowen suggests that if Bitcoin dominance rises again in Q4, it could cause some altcoins, including ETH, to sell off.
ETH/BTC Price Action: Despite this, Cowen argues that even if other Bitcoin pairs drop, ETH/BTC might not necessarily fall much further, or it could remain stable.
Ethereum’s Price Action and the Role of Bitcoin
The analyst believes that ETH/USD will be heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price movements. If Bitcoin drops below the key $70k level, it could signal weakness in the market, potentially dragging down ETH as well.
Support Levels for ETH/USD: A drop in Bitcoin’s price below $70k could indicate further downside risk for Ethereum. However, Cowen thinks the cyclical view (based on past trends) should still be followed, as long as Bitcoin remains above this key level.
The Bottom for ETH/BTC: Could We Be Close?
Cowen speculates that we might be near the bottom for the ETH/BTC pair, especially with Bitcoin dominance now at 60%. However, he said that there’s no certainty in the market, and there’s always the possibility that prices could dip even lower.
Potential for a Lower Low: While Cowen thinks the current levels might be the bottom, he’s cautious, acknowledging that ETH/BTC could still dip before a real recovery happens.
Looking Ahead: As of now, Cowen sees $0.03465 as a potential bottom level for ETH/BTC, and he believes we might see confirmation of a bottom by the end of 2024.