FOMC Meeting Today [LIVE] Updates

Today’s FOMC meeting is expected to be a key market event, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 pm ET. Markets are pricing in a 97.2% probability of a rate pause. Attention will then shift to Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET. With inflation largely flat and unemployment easing, the Fed may adopt a more neutral tone. However, renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump and political pressure concerns could keep Powell cautious, with no clear signals on future rate cuts.

The upcoming FOMC decision is viewed as a major catalyst for U.S. markets, which traded mixed ahead of the announcement. With a 97% chance of a rate hold, investors expect borrowing costs to remain high in the near term. Market participants are primarily focused on the Fed’s commentary and economic projections. Any indication of rate cuts later in the year could boost investor confidence despite ongoing trade-related concerns.

Markets remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting, with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate levels. A steady policy stance would keep financial conditions tight, limiting relief for borrowers. At the same time, renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump added another layer of uncertainty. While most proposed tariffs historically do not materialize, investors remain focused on how combined policy and geopolitical risks could affect economic growth.

U.S. Treasury markets have remained relatively calm ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, reflecting confidence in the Fed’s policy direction. Analysts say stability in bond markets suggests investors trust the central bank to act prudently, regardless of leadership speculation or political pressure.

Recent economic data, including durable goods orders and labor market figures, support the Federal Reserve’s decision to remain patient. The U.S. economy continues to show underlying strength, giving policymakers flexibility to delay rate cuts. Officials are expected to closely monitor inflation and employment trends before adjusting policy.

Investors are less focused on an immediate rate change and more attentive to future policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Analysts believe the FOMC will hold rates steady while offering limited guidance on upcoming decisions. Any hint toward future rate cuts could influence market sentiment, even if no action is taken this week.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its two-day policy meeting this week, as inflation continues to run above the central bank’s 2% target. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson said policymakers appear comfortable waiting for more data before making any moves. With economic indicators showing resilience, the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious, wait-and-see stance.

A rate pause is almost certain, with 97.2% odds of a 0 bps change, so the decision itself may not move markets much. The real focus is Jerome Powell’s tone. If he stays firm on rates, the US dollar could strengthen and bond yields may rise, which usually pressures risk assets like Bitcoin. What the Fed signals about inflation, jobs, and future cuts will matter far more than the rate decision itself.

Bitcoin often sees sharp moves around FOMC meetings, and history suggests caution. In 2025, BTC fell after 7 of 8 Fed meetings, with drops ranging from –6% to –29%. Only one meeting triggered a brief rally.For 2026’s first meeting, the chance of a rate cut is just 2.8%, meaning no major support from lower rates is expected. While markets usually turn hopeful before the Fed decision, Bitcoin has mostly reacted negatively afterward. FOMC weeks remain high-risk periods for volatility and downside moves.

The Federal Reserve begins its FOMC meeting today, with markets expecting no interest rate cut for now. Official data shows inflation holding steady, while job numbers remain strong, giving the Fed room to wait. Policymakers are also cautious because recent inflation and labor figures were affected by the 2025 government shutdown. However, independent price data paints a different picture, showing a sharp drop in inflation in January. For now, the Fed is likely to stay patient and watch the data closely.