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Discussions around the next Bitcoin bull run have once again begun to rise. Since October 2025, Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its $126,000 all-time high, dropping nearly 55% and slipping below $70,000, entering completely into bearish territory.
CryptoQuant verified author Joao Wedson recently shared data suggesting that Bitcoin next bull run may only begin when…
Bitcoin Bull Run: Long-Term Holder NUPL Turns Red
According to Joao Wedson, the key signal for the Bitcoin bull run lies in the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. This indicator shows whether long-term Bitcoin investors are in profit or loss.
However, past cycles show that the strongest bull run phases usually begin only after this metric turns negative.
Looking at the metric, the NUPL stands at 0.36, meaning most long-term holders are still in profit.
When NUPL falls below zero, even the most patient investors face unrealized losses. In previous cycles, this red zone marked seller exhaustion and the final stage before a new bull run began.
When Will Next Bull Run Start?
The Bitcoin halving bull run pattern has stayed consistent in past cycles. Looking at the third Bitcoin halving, which took place on May 11, 2020. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near $8,572.
After the halving, Bitcoin entered a powerful bull run, rising steadily over the next 18 months. The price eventually reached a peak of nearly $69,000 in November 2021, marking a gain of about 705%.
Following the April 2024 halving, analysts now expect a similar trend.
Based on past cycles, the next Bitcoin bull run could begin between early and mid-2026, as reduced supply and growing Bitcoin ETF demand start pushing prices higher again.
Will Bitcoin Reach New ATH in 2026?
But the real question Market participants are now asking is, when will the next Bitcoin bull run start? Several major firms have raised their Bitcoin price prediction for 2026.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein now expect Bitcoin to reach around $150,000, supported by steady institutional adoption
Speaking during Blockchain Week in Dubai, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by late 2026, citing better regulation and growing institutional acceptance.
Economist and renowned author Robert Kiyosaki has repeated his bold $250,000 target.
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could move above $200,000 by March 2026 if global liquidity conditions remain supportive.