Zach Anderson
Feb 19, 2026 16:23
Pantera Capital leads Novig’s $75M Series B as the sports prediction market reports 10x volume growth and pursues CFTC approval for nationwide operations.
Pantera Capital is leading a $75 million Series B round in Novig, the peer-to-peer sports prediction market that’s positioning itself as the anti-DraftKings. The deal values the company at $500 million and brings total funding past $105 million.
The timing isn’t accidental. Novig reported 10x growth in trading volume through 2025, now exceeding $4 billion annualized. Those numbers caught Pantera’s attention—and they tell a story about where prediction markets are actually making money.
The Sports Betting Problem
Here’s what traditional sportsbooks don’t advertise: only about 2% of their users turn a profit. The rest? They’re feeding the house edge.
Novig’s pitch is structural, not just marketing. By running a peer-to-peer exchange rather than acting as the counterparty, they’ve reportedly pushed that profitability rate to 23% of users. The platform claims 5% better odds than traditional books—a margin that compounds quickly for active traders.
“The house always wins because it owns the rules,” Pantera wrote in their investment announcement. “Novig’s betting that they can change the rules.”
The Regulatory Play
What makes this interesting beyond the sports angle: Novig is actively pursuing CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market. If granted, they’d operate federally across all 50 states—sidestepping the patchwork of state gambling regulations that currently fragments the industry.
The company pivoted to a sweepstakes model in late 2024 to navigate existing regulations, using virtual currencies that convert to fiat. But the DCM application signals bigger ambitions. CFTC oversight would legitimize the exchange model and potentially open institutional participation.
Founded in 2021 by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah, Novig focuses exclusively on North American leagues—NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, and UFC. Their order-book model mirrors financial exchanges, matching opposing bets rather than setting house odds.
Why Pantera Cares
Sports betting represents over 90% of prediction market volume on major platforms, according to Dune Analytics data. While political prediction markets grabbed headlines in 2024, the real money flows through sports.
Novig’s revenue model aligns with this thesis. They make money on liquidity and commissions, not user losses. That’s a fundamentally different incentive structure than DraftKings or FanDuel—and one that could scale with global liquidity rather than against it.
The CFTC decision will be the next major catalyst. Approval would validate the prediction market model for sports at the federal level and potentially trigger a wave of similar applications from competitors.
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