Bitcoin Cash [BCH] has retraced into the long-term demand zone at $440-$470. This area was just below the midpoint of the range that BCH has traded within for two years. It is possible that a test of this long-term demand zone could provide a bullish trend shift.
Investors need to remember that the market sentiment remained bearish. The current Bitcoin [BTC] bounce was likely a temporary one, though it had enough strength to defend the $70k psychological support.
Bitcoin came under accusations of being a “Ponzi scheme“, and the wider market was suffering under political uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions. In these conditions, Bitcoin Cash bulls could have a hard time enforcing a recovery.
On-chain metrics give mixed signals for Bitcoin Cash
The supply distribution metric showed that the retail sector was not accumulating BCH. Only the 100-1000 BCH holding cohort has been actively adding to their funds in 2026. While this cohort was a respectable size, it might not be enough by itself.
During 2026, the 1k–100k BCH holding group has been gradually selling. So have the holders of 1-100 BCH. Whales with more than 100,000 BCH were the only ones adding.
The 90-day and 365-day Mean Coin Ages were used to compare whether network-wide accumulation was underway. The 3-month holder coin age has been in a steady uptrend since December, which was a positive sign.
At the same time, the 90-day MVRV value was the lowest it has been since October 2025. Back then, the 10/10 crash had brought the market to its knees, and holders were facing sizeable losses, especially the short-term ones.
Bitcoin Cash was able to rebound from the $470 support zone. At the time of writing, similarities between current and October prices and MVRV values were visible.
The 365-day Mean Coin Age disagreed with this rosy outlook. It highlighted waves of selling since October. Following December, accumulation was erratic rather than consistent. This could result in short-term price volatility, but it does not support the idea of a long-term recovery.
The 1-day structure and the momentum, according to the moving averages, were both bearish. At press time, the CMF has descended to -0.25 to signal heavy capital outflow from BCH.
Combined with the 365-day Mean Coin Age, the signals aligned to warn investors of a deeper price drop. The 90-day MVRV was at multi-month lows, which can ease the profit-taking pressure on BCH.
However, if BTC decides to fall below $70k and $66k again, Bitcoin Cash could quickly lose the $440 support.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin Cash showed signs that the prices could fall below the $440 long-term demand zone.
- Swing traders should be wary of buying BCH at these levels. A move back above $480 would give some confidence for the coming weeks.
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