Now into the fourth week of the Middle East conflict, and with both sides upping the ante, supposed safe-haven assets such as gold, and silver, are crashing hard. Is the $BTC price about to follow, having fallen below the major $69K support, or can Bitcoin make the most of a positive weekly outlook and rally higher?
Gold plummets like a small-cap altcoin: Bottom found?
Source: TradingView
Things are moving fast on Monday morning. Gold tanked in a manner more like a low-cap altcoin, at one point down 8.7% since the close on Friday. However, in just the last few hours, 4% of this drop has been clawed back. It now remains to be seen if this is just a rise to confirm $4,270 as new resistance, or whether a local bottom could have been found. The Stochastic RSI and the RSI in the daily time frame are signalling a very oversold condition, therefore, on the balance of probabilities, this does look more like a bottom.
$BTC price about to rally out of a falling wedge?
Source: TradingView
While the $BTC price has fallen back through the major horizontal support, turning it into resistance, at least in the shorter to medium-term time frames, it still has to be taken into account that the higher highs and higher lows are continuing to be made.
Recent price action puts the $BTC price inside, and close to the very bottom of a falling wedge pattern – a break to the upside is the more likely outcome. This would probably then entail a break back above the $69K horizontal level.
If the market does get spooked again, the bottom of the bear flag, plus the $65,800 horizontal support are solid areas for a bounce.
Bulls need to begin the next rally from here
Source: TradingView
The daily time frame shows the similar-looking bear flags that are forcing the $BTC price down into its bear market. If the first flag is anything to go by, there is perhaps room for one more rise in price to the top of the current flag. This would maybe take the price up to another confirmation of the main bear trend line, which also forms the top of a big descending channel.
The shorter to medium-term momentum indicators have pretty much all reset, and in this daily time frame it can be seen that the indicator lines of the Stochastic RSI are approaching the bottom.
However, a note of caution is the fact that the indicator line has dropped out of the ascending channel in the RSI. When this happened in the first bear flag, it heralded the last dip to the bottom of the flag. Could this breakdown be a fakeout?
One last factor in common needs to be considered. This is that both flags have a strong support/resistance level running through their middle. For the first flag it was at $90,400, while for this one it is the critical $69,000 level. Getting back above this level, and making another surge to the top of the bear flag will be the main priority for the bulls.
Very positive weekly outlook: strong upside momentum incoming?
Source: TradingView
The more reliable weekly time frame is starting to look a lot more positive for the bulls. It is obviously still very early in the week for any big forecasts to be made, but the winds of change are perhaps just starting to blow.
The stand-out indicator here is the Stochastic RSI, which has both indicators now firmly above the trigger line of the 20.00 level. This means that upside momentum has now kicked in, and unless things turn bad over the course of this week, the $BTC price action is likely to rally. The RSI is also looking to confirm this as the indicator line gets above the downtrend line once again.
Finally, as this article draws to a close, and shortly before publishing, the $BTC price has experienced a strong surge to the upside, with a 5% gain on the day so far. Let us see what the rest of the day brings.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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