CPI Report Today LIVE: U.S Inflation Report Release, CPI Data Expectations and FED News

Gold remains under pressure as key fundamental factors lean bearish. The upcoming U.S. CPI release could strengthen the dollar if inflation comes in hot, pushing gold lower. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts further dampens gold’s appeal, as higher interest rates make non-yielding assets less attractive. Geopolitical tensions could offer temporary support, but calm markets weaken safe-haven demand. Additionally, rising U.S. 10-year bond yields shift investor preference toward income-generating assets. Overall, gold is bearish below 3284, with a target near 3091.

Today’s US CPI inflation data is expected to draw major attention, despite the complexities in analyzing underlying factors—especially with potential early price pass-throughs from tariffs. According to Bloomberg consensus, the forecasts stand at 2.4% YoY for headline CPI and 2.8% for core, with monthly inflation (April) estimated at 0.3% for both.

While pinpointing the true inflation drivers remains challenging, any significant deviation from expectations—either higher or lower—could meaningfully impact yields and market sentiment, especially considering current technical conditions in the bond market.

The U.S. CPI data is set to be released today at 8:30 AM ET, and markets are on edge. The year-over-year inflation rate is expected to come in at 2.4%, matching last month’s figure. However, this CPI print could be a turning point. The U.S. economy is already showing signs of weakness, with Q1 GDP in the negative and growth slowing. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could confirm stagflation—a scenario where inflation rises while economic growth declines—considered one of the worst outcomes for markets.

This would likely delay rate cut hopes and trigger a pullback in stocks and crypto. On the flip side, if CPI is cooler than expected, it would signal easing inflation pressures and potentially fuel a strong rally in risk assets. While Polymarket traders expect CPI at 2.4%, real-time inflation data from Truflation sits at 1.68%, suggesting the possibility of an undershoot. One surprise in today’s CPI can move everything—from stocks to crypto to bonds.

Today’s CPI data release at 8:30 AM ET is one of the most crucial events for the market this week. The expected YoY CPI is 2.4%, the same as last month. While the recent US-China trade deal has cleared much of the market uncertainty, one major concern still looms—stagflation, a scenario where inflation rises while economic growth weakens. With Q1 GDP already negative, a higher-than-expected CPI could confirm these stagflation fears. On the other hand, a lower-than-expected CPI would ease those concerns and could trigger a strong market rally.

The biggest event of the week is here—the US CPI data is set to release today at 8:30 AM ET, with market expectations holding at 2.4%, the same as last month. If the CPI comes in higher than expected, it could trigger a short-term bearish reaction as it may delay interest rate cuts, which is negative for risk-on assets like crypto. If the data matches expectations, markets may still rally due to existing bullish momentum. However, a CPI below 2.4% would be the most bullish outcome, likely fueling a strong pump in Bitcoin and altcoins as it increases the chances of rate cuts this year.

The April US CPI data will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 13, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time or 6 pm IST.