Ted Hisokawa
Jun 28, 2026 12:28
Bank of America updated its outlook this week, raising global growth expectations and projecting 75 bps of additional Fed hikes even as inflation cools.
Bank of America Sees 75 bps Fed Hikes; Polymarket “0 Rate Cuts in 2026” Odds Slip to 77.35%
Bank of America raised its global growth outlook and said it expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes even as inflation eases. On Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder, the market still prices no cuts as the dominant outcome, though the implied odds have slipped to 77.35%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 77.35% (Yes) versus 22.65% (No).
- The contract repriced lower as a bank forecast argued for higher-for-longer policy, including 75 bps of Fed hikes despite easing inflation.
- The market resolves on 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is down from 82.10% to 77.35%.
Bank of America raised its outlook for global growth and maintained a view that the Federal Reserve could still tighten policy despite signs that inflation is easing. The bank forecast a cumulative 75 basis points of Fed rate hikes, pointing to resilience that could keep policy restrictive. The call contrasts with expectations in some corners of the market that easing inflation would pave the way for rate cuts. The updated outlook underscores how sticky growth and policy uncertainty can keep the path of interest rates contested. The bank’s view highlights a scenario in which cuts are deferred as policymakers remain focused on keeping inflation pressures contained.
Polymarket Fed Cuts Ladder: $39.47M Volume as “0 Cuts” Leads (77.35%) Ahead of “1 Cut” (12.50%) and “2 Cuts” (4.25%)
Polymarket’s ladder shows the “0 (0 bps)” strike at 77.35% Yes and 22.65% No, keeping “no cuts” firmly in front even after a pullback from 82.10% previously. The next rungs are priced far lower: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.50% Yes versus 87.50% No, and “2 (50 bps)” at 4.25% Yes versus 95.75% No. Longer-shot tails are nearly written off, with “3 (75 bps)” at 0.95% Yes/99.05% No and “4 (100 bps)” at 0.45% Yes/99.55% No. Total matched volume stands at $39,466,206, indicating heavy positioning concentrated around the no-cuts baseline into the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Watch whether the ladder’s “1 (25 bps)” and “2 (50 bps)” strikes gain share from the “0 (0 bps)” line, and whether volume accelerates as traders express more convex views on the number of cuts into the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Macro Watchlist: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking Beyond Fed Rate Cuts
Beyond the rate-cut ladder, traders are also clustering in adjacent macro timing bets on Polymarket, including 81.5% on “Fed Decision in July?” for “No change” as $22,400,504 in volume concentrates around the near-term policy path. The mix of long-dated and meeting-by-meeting positioning underscores how participants are hedging both the destination and the cadence of the next move, while keeping an eye on fast-moving geopolitical and cross-asset contracts that can quickly reshape the macro narrative.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.2 |
| 7d | +2.2 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$39,466,206
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 77.3% | 22.6% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.9% | 99.0% |
+9 more strikes not shown
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