FED Rate Cuts This Week Could Trigger Major Crypto Rally

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Bitcoin is trading between $116,000 and $119,210, while Ethereum is hovering around $3,600 to $3,871. The mood is cautiously optimistic but shaky, with many traders holding back until the Federal Reserve reveals its next move. 

However, Crypto analyst and media host Paul Barron has sparked conversation on X with a hot take on what could happen if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. 

Although the markets only see a 24% chance of a July cut, compared to 81% for September, Barron says a surprise move could ignite major rallies across multiple sectors, especially crypto. 

Why Bulls Would Celebrate a July Rate Cut

According to Barron, a surprise rate cut could fuel a bullish wave across markets, with stocks, tech, and real estate poised to benefit from cheaper borrowing costs. The analyst notes that historically, the S&P 500 performs well after such cuts, and growth stocks could rally as valuations improve. Mortgage rates may dip from 6.8%, lifting housing demand, while a weaker dollar would boost U.S. exports. For crypto, the impact could be big; lower rates often benefit risk assets, and digital currencies like XRP and ADA, though facing profit-taking, could regain momentum. Still, the total crypto market cap remains stuck below $4 trillion, awaiting a fresh catalyst.

On the same track, John E. Deaton also suggested that if Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve decide to cut interest rates, it could significantly boost asset prices, particularly in the cryptocurrency market. Deaton’s post highlights growing optimism among pro-crypto voices that a rate cut would act as a catalyst for the next big rally in digital assets.

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Prediction Markets Weigh In

While there is noise of reducing the rate cuts, prediction markets like Polymarket Traders have priced in a 96.3% chance that rates stay steady at 4.25% to 4.50% during the July 29–30 meeting. Less than 3% of bets expect a 25 bps cut, with negligible odds for a larger move or an increase.

But Here’s the Catch

While a rate cut sounds bullish, Barron also laid out potential downsides. One major risk is the return of inflation, especially if wage growth outpaces productivity. The Fed is reportedly worried about a “wage-price spiral” while unemployment remains under 4%.

There’s also concern that a rate cut in July could signal economic weakness, which would spook consumer sentiment. If the Fed acts out of panic rather than strength, it could be seen as a policy misstep, raising fears of stagflation, where the economy slows down while prices keep rising. In short, a surprise Fed cut might be bullish, but only if the motive is growth, not fear.