Key Takeaways
- Mena identifies $85,000 as resistance before a potential $90,000 advance.
- His analysis finds a 1.21% average weekly gain after hotter core CPI prints.
- The strategist targets $2,800-$3,000 for ether and $130 for solana.
Bitcoin’s $90K Forecast Faces an $85K Test
Bitcoin could regain $85,000 and move toward $90,000 after upcoming economic releases, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at crypto investment product issuer 21shares, told Bitcoin.com News in commentary supplied Oct. 14. He argued that last week’s decline below $85,000 had already reflected much of the downside risk associated with a hotter inflation reading.
“With PPI due tomorrow, the final major near-term macro data release will be out of the way ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. That could set the stage for another test of $85k resistance,” Mena said, adding:
“While a pullback toward $81k remains possible, we believe the balance of risks favors a move through $85k and toward $90k once the remaining macro uncertainty clears.”
The Federal Reserve’s next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28. The producer price index, or PPI, measures prices received by domestic producers and is due Oct. 15. Its designation as the final major near-term release reflects Mena’s assessment.
Hotter CPI Challenges Bitcoin’s Recovery
September’s consumer price index results showed prices rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% over the preceding year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The monthly core reading exceeded the 0.2% economists had expected. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $83,000, toward $82,800, after the release.
Mena’s initial commentary described BTC as holding above $83,000 after previously testing the $81,000-$82,000 zone. Before the release, the retreat had also brought support near $81,300 into focus. His argument rests on that earlier selling having absorbed much of the inflation risk, even as subsequent trading tested the initial assessment.
The strategist views bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, as a barometer of liquidity and investors’ willingness to hold riskier assets. His analysis puts BTC’s average return at 1.21% in the seven days following hotter-than-expected core CPI releases since 2023, supporting his interpretation that an inflation surprise need not prevent a recovery.
ETF Flows Frame Ether and Solana Price Targets
Institutional positioning provides another reference point, with bitcoin having twice rebounded near the $81,500 ETF cost basis identified by Glassnode. That benchmark estimates the acquisition price associated with U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund holdings. The analysis identified approximately $77,500 as the next major downside level if that support fails.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.62 million in net inflows on Oct. 13, reversing the preceding session’s withdrawals. Fidelity’s spot bitcoin ETF, FBTC, received $103.06 million, while Blackrock’s equivalent fund, IBIT, brought in $65.89 million. Ether funds also returned to positive flows, drawing $24.84 million after 10 consecutive sessions of net redemptions.
Mena also cited quarterly ETF inflows exceeding $3 billion for ETH and $500 million for SOL, describing their strongest quarter this year. He expects ether to consolidate around $2,500 in the near term before another attempt at $2,800-$3,000. For solana, the strategist identified $130 as a potential price level by the end of the quarter.
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