Key takeaways
TRX shows bullish potential as futures remain healthy and spot demand surges. Key metrics suggest a possible rally toward $0.4, unless weakening longs trigger a retrace to $0.33.
Tron [TRX] has traded within an ascending channel over the past 2 months with healthy pullbacks along the way.
In fact, at the time of writing, Tron was trading at $0.357, marking a 2.12% drop on the daily charts.
Before this retrace, TRX had been on an upward trajectory, increasing by 5.48% and 19% on weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
Amid this sustained uptrend, Tron futures markets have left analysts talking. One of them is CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, who suggested that Futures indicate TRX could rise further.
Tron’s Futures signal more room for growth
According to Kesmeci, Tron’s Futures Volume Bubble Map signaled that TRX has more room for an uptick, especially in the short term.
Source: Cryptoquant
He further stated that when this metric flashes red-toned bubbles, it indicates potential overheating in the futures market.
Looking at previous cycles, the last time it reached these levels was early December 2024, when TRX surged from $0.26 to $0.45 and the market topped.
At press time, this metric was within the neutral zone, suggesting that futures activity is healthy and not excessive.
When this happens, it signals there’s more room for upward movement with less likelihood for overheating.
Longs are quitting quietly
Interestingly, while the futures market remains within healthy territory, it seems long position holders are exiting slowly.
According to Santiment, Tron’s Open Interest (OI) dropped from $340 million to $313 million, marking a $27 million drop, as of writing.
Typically, declining OI suggests that investors are closing their futures positions and exiting the market.
Source: Santiment
Despite declining OI, Tron’s Funding Rate has remained positive for four consecutive days. According to Santiment, this metric hovered around 0.01% as of this writing.
Mostly, when OI drops while the Funding Rate remains positive, it means that weak hands are closing out, but strong longs are holding.
Source: Santiment
Thus, although longs are getting closed, the remaining ones are mostly longs, and shorts are still in the minority. These two metrics suggest that longs are quietly exiting, which may weaken the upward momentum.
Clash between Spots and Futures
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Tron was experiencing healthy demand across the market. While Futures are slowly closing, Spot demand has remained intact.
As a result, Tron’s Spot vs Perp Premium Averaged Out Dollar surged to 0.0014, at press time, touching positive territory.
At the same time, its Relative Strength has held in a bullish zone, hitting 74 close to overbought areas.
Source: Tradingview
When the Spot vs Prep Premium is positive and the RSI is higher, it indicates buying pressure, suggesting that investors are aggressively buying TRX in the spot market. Thus, there’s a genuine and organic accumulation,
Historically, positive premium precedes rallies as spot buyers are less likely to sell quickly compared to leveraged traders.
Therefore, if this spot demand holds while strong longs hold their positions, Tron will continue with the uptrend.
A continuation of the current trend will see TRX reclaim $0.37 and target $0.4. Conversely, if buyers in the spot take a step back while OI continue to decline, TRX will retrace to $0.33.
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