Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming more resilient. U.S. GDP data was released on Wednesday, and a 0.3% contraction was initially taken badly by markets, but by the end of the day, and into Thursday morning, all losses had been reversed.
Sharp contraction in US GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a combination of increased imports (as businesses raced to get in front of the impending tariffs) and decreased government spending, led to the sharp contraction in GDP, from 2.4% in Q4 2024, to -0.3% in Q1 of 2025.
Stocks and Bitcoin fall and recover in quick order
To begin with, the market reaction saw the S&P 500 fall to 5,432 points, while Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $93,000. However, by the end of the day, the S&P 500 had recovered to end the day slightly up at 5,568 points, and Bitcoin recovered to $94,200, before settling back at the $95,000 resistance level early on Thursday.
What probably needs to be taken into account here, especially for longer term investors, is that all the noise associated with the US global tariffs war can accelerate and decelerate in volume over the short to medium term time scale, but over the longer term, markets are going to be pricing in the arrival of increasing global liquidity. Whichever way things go, global liquidity has to rise and this should have the effect of pushing asset prices higher.
$BTC price approaches top of ascending triangle
Source: TradingView
The short-term price action for $BTC shows the wick down below the ascending triangle, where traders might have thought that the price was about to break down. This did not happen, and $BTC was quickly bought back up. The 4, 8, 12 hour Stochastic RSIs have all reset to the bottom, and as they climb back up the momentum could take the price out of the top of the ascending triangle.
$BTC at 0.618 Fibonacci resistance
Source: TradingView
The daily chart displays the falling wedge pattern that the $BTC price has recently escaped from. This wedge pattern is a continuation of the upside movement from the previous massive bull flag, and the current pennant formation (ascending triangle) is also a continuation pattern.
Putting aside support and resistance levels, the Fibonacci levels are displaying support at the 0.5, and resistance at the 0.618. If this resistance can be overcome, the path should be clear for the $BTC price to rise to the 0.786 Fibonacci at $102,000.
Weekly, 2-week, and monthly charts all bullish for $BTC
Source: TradingView
While the weekly and 2-weekly price charts for $BTC look extremely bullish, this is even the case when zooming right out into the monthly chart. Not only can the price be seen to be currently confirming above the falling wedge structure, but the two indicators at the bottom of the chart are also very bullish.
Firstly, the Stochastic RSI is displaying that the indicators are shaping up for a bullish cross. Combined with the week, and 2-week Stochastic RSI’s, which are also angled upward from the bottom, this can bring huge upside price momentum. The Relative Strength Indicator at the very bottom of the chart is also posturing to make a cross up.
Investors need to let go of the ‘disbelief’ phase
Nervous markets that have not long ago experienced some quite heavy downside price action can take a little while to move out of the ‘disbelief’ phase and into ‘hope’. After ‘hope’ follow ‘optimism’, ‘belief’, and ‘euphoria’. Is Bitcoin about to follow this traditional cycle that could take it much, much higher?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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