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Bitcoin’s recent rise has started a new debate among traders and analysts. Many are wondering if the bull run is coming to an end or if a new rally is just beginning. One of the most respected crypto chart analysts, Stockmoney Lizards, thinks this cycle is different from the past ones and says Bitcoin may still have more room to grow.
The 4-Year Cycle Debate
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s market follows a four-year cycle, roughly 1.5 years from halving to peak, and four years from one peak to the next. By that logic, the market should now be entering its bear phase.
But according to Stockmoney Lizards, this cycle is different. The total market cap has grown from $10 billion in 2016 to over $2 trillion in 2025, making simple historical comparisons less relevant.
Unlike previous cycles marked by dramatic parabolic rises, Bitcoin has been climbing in a steady channel. There hasn’t been a “blow-off top” or explosive hype phase yet, a sign that the cycle could still have room to grow.
Institutional Buying Changes the Game
One major difference this time is institutional involvement. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold roughly $150 billion worth of BTC, and inflows have remained strong throughout October.
Stockmoney Lizards points out that such large-scale investment reduces the chances of a -90% crash, which was common in previous cycles.
Apart from it, on-chain data like the Satoshimeter shows the market hasn’t reached its typical “hype zone.” Other technical patterns, like three rising valleys and Bollinger Band compression, also suggest a strong foundation for another leg up.
Bitcoin Nears Final Resistance Zone
Adding bullishness to the analysis, crypto analyst Castrades says Bitcoin is still moving in a large ABC correction pattern, which often appears after big rallies.
He points out a key resistance area between $117,000 and $119,500 — calling it the “final resistance zone.” If Bitcoin can’t break above this range, it might drop back toward $94,000–$97,000.
But if the price climbs above $123,500, Castrades believes it could start a new strong bullish phase instead.