On-chain data shows the capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed down since last year’s high. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price.
Bitcoin Realized Cap Continues To Grow, Albeit At A Slower Rate
According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, capital inflows into BTC have been on the decline recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Cap,” which is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates its total valuation by assuming that the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.
The last transaction for any token can be considered to be the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at its time would denote its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap takes the total sum of the cost basis of the entire BTC supply in circulation.
This value is nothing, but the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency. Changes in the indicator, therefore, reflect the capital flowing into or out of the asset.
Below is the chart for the Realized Cap shared by the analytics firm, which shows the trend in its daily value, as well as its 30-day percentage change, over the last couple of years.
As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap observed some sharp growth during the last couple of months of 2024, implying capital was flowing at a rapid rate into the cryptocurrency.
This is more easily visible through the monthly percentage change, which shot up to a very high positive level. These inflows appear to have provided the fuel for BTC’s rally above $100,000.
From the chart, it’s apparent that after hitting a peak, the 30-day change in the Realized Cap reversed its direction and started going down in a sharp manner instead. This decline in the metric has continued into 2025.
Despite the drawdown, though, its value is still quite positive, suggesting the Realized Cap continues to grow at a notable rate. A similar trend was also witnessed back in the first few months of 2024, where a high in capital inflows was followed by a cooldown, which led into a lengthy consolidation period for Bitcoin.
So far, capital is still flowing into BTC at a rate of $38.6 billion per month, which is significantly higher than the lows observed during last year’s sideways phase. It now remains to be seen whether the inflows will continue to decline in the coming days, or if a reversal would happen, potentially acting as a bullish signal for the asset.
Following the latest streak of inflows, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has reached the $832 billion mark, which is a new all-time high.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has been struggling to pick a direction during the last few days as its price is still trading around the $104,000 level.
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