- Bitcoin tops $115K, moving above mid-term holders’ Realized Price near $114K, boosting sentiment.
- Short-term holders show losses as SOPR dips, but no signs yet of “Extreme Greed” cycle top.
- Analysts split: some see BTC peaking, others eye $150K by Christmas after Q4 rally.
Bitcoin has extended its gains in September, rising from around $108,000 at the start of the month to more than $115,000.
While the move represents a modest 4% increase over two weeks, new on-chain data suggests the cryptocurrency may be preparing for another leg higher that could eventually lead to fresh all-time highs.
Mid-term holders’ realized price breached
According to analysis published on CryptoQuant by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s rebound from $107,000 to $114,000 has pushed the asset above the Realized Price of mid-term holders — wallets that last moved coins within the past three to six months.
This Realized Price currently stands near $114,000.
The Realized Price is considered a key pivot level that often reflects market sentiment and possible sell pressure.
By climbing above this threshold, Bitcoin has reduced the likelihood of immediate selling from this cohort.
ShayanMarkets noted that a firm breakout and consolidation above $114,000 could signal renewed confidence among mid-term holders.
This, in turn, could provide the foundation for a new bullish phase capable of driving BTC toward record levels.
However, the analyst cautioned that failure to maintain this level risks weakening sentiment and could open the door to deeper corrective moves in the near term.
Short-term holders show signs of stress
Other on-chain signals paint a more cautious picture.
CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlighted the behavior of short-term holders (STH) by examining the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), adjusted with a 30-day moving average.
This metric measures whether investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.
Gaah observed that after four months of trading above break-even, the STH SOPR has slipped into negative territory, indicating that short-term holders are now realizing losses.
This shift suggests a temporary loss of confidence among speculative investors, who are more sensitive to price fluctuations.
Despite Bitcoin’s broader rally from $60,000 to $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH metric has shown declining peaks.
In previous cycles, sharp price surges were accompanied by SOPR readings in the “Extreme Greed” zone, reflecting strong retail participation.
This time, however, such dynamics have not been observed, implying that institutional investors may be the primary drivers behind recent gains.
Gaah added that historically, market tops are usually confirmed when short-term holders exhibit extreme greed.
As this has not occurred, the analyst suggested the current pullback may simply be part of a healthy consolidation rather than a signal of a long-term reversal.
Mixed outlook as year-end approaches
Market observers remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
Some analysts caution that the cryptocurrency may be approaching the peak of its current cycle, while others anticipate a short-term downturn in September before a renewed rally in the final quarter of 2025.
Forecasts vary widely, with some projecting Bitcoin could reach as high as $150,000 by Christmas if bullish momentum persists.
For now, the asset trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours, as it attempts to build support above key on-chain levels.
With both bullish and cautionary signals present, investors are closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the mid-term holders’ Realized Price, as this may determine whether the next phase of the rally begins or if a deeper correction unfolds.
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