Bitcoin Price Analysis: $120K Rally or $78K Drop What’s Next?

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The entrance of Bitcoin (BTC) price above $100k, for the first time since its existence earlier this month, was viewed as one of the most important bullish milestones during the 2024/2025 bull market. However, the accelerated crypto cash rotation to large and mid-cap altcoins in preparation for a parabolic altseason in 2025, has weighed down on Bitcoin’s previous bullish sentiment.

The flagship coin has dropped more than 14 percent in the past two weeks to trade about $93.3k on Monday, December 30, during the mid-London session. With Bitcoin price, in the daily time frame, having consistently closed below the 50 Moving Average (MA), it is safe to assume that the short-term bears have the upper hand. 

Midterm Targets for Bitcoin Price as Per Brandt’s Chart 

According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin price has been hovering around a crucial crossroads, which could either lead to a rally towards $120k or further correction towards the support level above $78k. From the correction perspective, Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin price could be forming a potential head and shoulder (H&S) pattern, in the daily time frame.

On the bullish rebound outlook, Brandt noted that Bitcoin price could be forming the famous Hump Slump Bump Dump Pump (HSBDP) chart construction.

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Market Picture

Despite the short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin, institutional investors – led by BlackRock’s IBIT, and MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) – have continued to aggressively accumulate more coins. According to on-chain data analysis provided by Coinglass, the supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges has declined to a multi-year low of about 2.24 million.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers have registered a cumulative total net inflow of about $35.6 billion, thus currently holding total net assets of around $106.6 billion. However, the Bitcoin’s Futures Open Interest (OI) market has declined by over $7 billion in the past few weeks to hover at about $59 billion, signaling rising fear of a potential midterm selloff.