Bitcoin Price Crash Ahead? CryptoQuant Flags Historic Demand Collapse

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Bitcoin continues to hover around $104,500, despite growing geopolitical tensions. Some analysts see this calm as a sign of a maturing market, while others warn of potential downside. CryptoQuant’s June 19 report issues the most alarming call situation in the crypto space as BTC could fall to $92,000 or even $81,000 if demand weakens further. Key indicators show ETF flows are down over 60% since April, and whale accumulation has halved. Their demand momentum tracker has hit a historic low, raising red flags.

However, Glassnode isn’t sounding the alarm. Instead, they interpret the lull as a natural shift toward a more institutionalized market. On-chain activity is quiet, but large transfers remain consistent, signaling increased use by major players. Derivatives volume now outpaces spot by up to 16x, suggesting deeper, more strategic market behavior.

Flowdesk, a trading firm, offers a middle-ground view. It calls the market “coiled” rather than cracking and notes growth in tokenized assets like gold-backed XAUT and RWAs. This could signal a breakout ahead, direction unknown.

Institutional vs Retail: A Tipping Point

The balance between institutional accumulation and retail retreat seems to be the key tension. With retail interest fading, institutional moves could drive big swings in price, up or down. Even betting markets like Polymarket are split between BTC dropping to $90K or rallying to $120K by month-end.

According to on-chain data provider Santiment, this split in sentiment between elite investors and retail participants could be a key signal for Bitcoin’s next move. According to Santiment, large Bitcoin wallets holding 10 or more BTC have grown by 231 in the last 10 days. Meanwhile, smaller wallets, those with between 0.001 and 10 BTC, have declined by over 37,000. This classic pattern, where retail runs while whales accumulate, has often preceded bullish reversals in the past. With BTC still hovering near $104.3K, some see this as a sign that smart money may be positioning for a leg up.

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Semler’s BTC Ambitions: 105,000 Coins by 2027

Semler Scientific is eyeing a massive bitcoin stash of 105,000 BTC by 2027, up from just 4,449 today. Its plan includes funding purchases through equity raises and debt, but current market valuations could complicate those efforts. Notably, its shares are down 40% this year despite BTC hitting record highs.

Meanwhile, in Macro Markets

Bitcoin faces resistance at $105,150, while Ethereum is consolidating below $2,510. Gold holds steady at $3,366 amid global tension. Japan’s Nikkei opened slightly higher as markets watch China’s rate decision.

Visa expands its stablecoin push in Europe and MENA, Solana faces Nasdaq interest, and Anthony Scaramucci believes SOL will overtake Ethereum.