Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Low Can BTC Go in a Recession?

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Bitcoin BTC Price News Today:  Bitcoin is under serious pressure as global recession fears, high interest rates, and escalating tariff tensions continue to shake investor confidence. While crypto market interest remains steady, BTC is struggling to break out, hovering just below the key $85,000 level.

As of writing, Bitcoin trades around $84,596, down slightly in the last 24 hours and nearly 22% off its all-time high of over $109,000 set earlier this year. The momentum appears to be fading, prompting analysts to ask: Is another crash coming?

Bitcoin Price Drop Reasons: Global Recession, High Interest Rates, and Deflation Fears

In a recent Altcoin Daily podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, trader Scott Melker, and market expert Gareth Soloway discussed Bitcoin’s future and issued a chilling warning.

Bloomberg Intelligence, senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, warned that Bitcoin could crash to $10,000 if macroeconomic conditions worsen, specifically, if the S&P 500 sees a sharp correction down to 4,000 points. 

Deflation Fears Rise as Bitcoin and Stocks Decouple

Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone says the global economy is showing signs of deflation, with key indicators flashing red. The U.S. stock market is now far above GDP levels, and the S&P 500 is moving out of sync with global markets. Similar patterns were seen before the big crashes in the US and Japan from 1929 and 1989. Slow growth, weaker trade due to tariffs, and falling prices in oil and Chinese bonds are all adding to the pressure.

At the same time, Bitcoin is no longer moving with stocks and other risk assets like it used to. While gold is climbing, both Bitcoin and equities are struggling. Investors are realizing that crypto ETFs act more like high-risk assets than safe havens. A spike in the gold-to-silver ratio above 100, often seen before recessions, is adding to the cautious mood.

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How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go?

McGlone explains that if the S&P drops to 4,000, historical correlations and market profiles indicate Bitcoin could revert to pre-pandemic average levels, around $10,000. This aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average and long-term fair value zones. He also references Bloomberg’s proprietary Bitcoin driver index, suggesting current fundamentals point to a sub-$17K valuation.

Bitcoin Price Crash Unlikely Unless $69K Breaks

Altcoin Daily analyst, however, provides a more hopeful view. While acknowledging the risk of a return to $20K in a severe recession, they argue that Bitcoin has shown resilience during recent corrections. It didn’t retest old highs despite a 10% drop in the S&P. 

With global liquidity now at an all-time high, thanks to rate cuts and QE outside the U.S., the odds of a massive collapse seem lower. Unless Bitcoin breaks below $69K convincingly, the analyst believes new lows are unlikely.