Bitcoin has climbed 250% since BlackRock’s IBIT launch. But those massive green candles—spikes traders chase—could become a thing of the past.
According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the era of sudden jolts up or down may be ending. He says that spot ETFs and big companies piling in will smooth out those drawdowns.
Spot ETF Approval Era
Balchunas pointed out that IBIT just passed $100 billion in assets under management. Based on his view, that landmark tells you everything.
Bitcoin traded between $116,000 and $120,000 after Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 coins. No panic sell‑off followed. Before ETFs, a sale like that could send prices tumbling by double‑digit percentages. Now, deep corrections look less likely.
This guy gets it. We’ve been saying same thing. Since BlackRock filing Bitcoin is up like 250% with much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns. This has helped it attract even bigger fish and gives it fighting chance to be adopted as currency. Downside is prob no more… https://t.co/0ECd5XevcO
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 26, 2025
In‑and‑out profit‑hunters once drove Bitcoin up or down by 20% or more in a day. But steady inflows from regulated products lure in large investors.
Balchunas argues that fewer wild swings will make crypto more useful for buying coffee or paying bills. He believes this shift will help Bitcoin behave more like a real currency and not just a roller‑coaster asset.
Institutional Steady Hands
Based on reports from Citigroup, every $1 billion of ETF inflows can lift Bitcoin by about 3.6%. Using that math, Citi sees Bitcoin hitting $199,000 before December 31.
That forecast depends on steady money flowing in. Big funds make big bets. And those bets tend to stick around longer than retail traders chasing quick gains.
Citigroup notes that BlackRock’s IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach $100 billion. That matters because it shows how hungry big players are for crypto.
If those trends keep up, Bitcoin could push past its current trading band. It may even test new highs without the classic “God candle” leaps that gave quick fortunes—and quick losses.
Volatility Trade‑Offs
Meanwhile, some analysts warn that early Bitcoin whales are taking profits and stepping aside. As institutions arrive, some old‑school traders will leave. That could shift volume to less regulated spots or exotic derivatives markets. In a calmer main market, risks may hide in side channels.
Lower volatility brings fewer heart‑stopping moments. It also means less of the adrenaline rush that attracts day‑traders. For some, that trade‑off is worth it. For others, the loss of big swings could drive them away.
Calmer Waters Ahead?
Overall, Bitcoin seems to be entering a new phase. Based on Balchunas’s take, those “God candles” won’t vanish overnight—but they’ll be rare. The push from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries aims to make price moves smoother.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
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