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Bitcoin’s current price action is marked by a consolidation around the $105,500 price level. Although it reached an intraday high of $106,807, it has since returned to $105,500, and its dominance also witnessed a minor fall. Notably, Bitcoin’s dominance metric, the BTC.D, which measures its share of the total crypto market capitalization, has stalled around the 64% level in recent weeks.
This stalling behavior drew attention from a certified market analyst, especially in light of many altcoins struggling to gain momentum in an environment dominated by Bitcoin’s inflow.
BTC Dominance Hits Resistance, Candlestick Flash Warnings
According to certified Level III CMT analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, the 64% region on the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart could mark a meaningful reversal point. Sharing his insights alongside a technical chart of Bitcoin’s market cap dominance on the monthly timeframe, Severino pointed out that the latest monthly candlestick formed a Doji right at the bottom of a previous Falling Window.
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In Japanese candlestick theory, such “windows” are not just gaps to be filled but serve as critical zones of support or resistance. The fact that BTC.D formed a Doji candle precisely at this window, according to Severino, is a textbook reaction suggesting the dominance rally may be losing strength.
This candlestick structure brings the focus onto how the current monthly candlestick plays out. If the current monthly candle becomes an Evening Star candlestick and closes below 62%, the odds of Bitcoin dominance rolling over increase significantly.
Altcoin Season Not Quite There Yet
As noted by Tony, if Bitcoin’s dominance candlestick this month forms an Evening Star pattern and closes below 62%, it has a high possibility of marking the end of the cryptocurrency’s current dominance. However, the analyst added a key caveat: the BTC.D Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed the previous month above 70, still suggesting strong momentum and keeping the larger trend in flux.
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Despite these early signals, Severino warned against jumping the gun. Although the technical evidence points to a possible short-term reversal in dominance, he clarified that it does not necessarily guarantee a full-fledged altcoin season. In his words, “I am still not of the mindset that we will get a typical altcoin season, but I am seeing some of the first signs that BTC.D might reverse here.”
For now, Bitcoin continues to hold steady above $105,000, and until BTC.D breaks convincingly below 62%, the cryptocurrency is in dominance. Nonetheless, the altcoin market could soon be looking at its first real window of opportunity in months.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,500, down by 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 63.1%, down by 0.57% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum, on the other hand, increased its market share by 2.13% to 9.6%.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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