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The crypto market is on edge as investors wait for two key U.S. labor reports are be released today, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the Initial Jobless Claims. Their results could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.
Many expect signs of a cooling job market, and the results could directly impact interest rates, stocks, and Bitcoin’s next big move.
ADP Employment Data Sets the Tone
The first release, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, arrives at 8:15 a.m. ET. This report offers an estimate of private-sector job growth and often serves as an early signal before Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls.
Economists expect 73,000 new jobs in August, far weaker than last month’s 104,000. A weaker reading would suggest the U.S. labor market is cooling, potentially encouraging the Fed to lean toward rate cuts, a scenario that tends to favor risk assets like crypto.
On the other hand, a surprise upside print could shake the market, adding pressure to BTC’s current price levels.
Jobless Claims Bring Another Signal
Just 15 minutes later, at 8:30 a.m. ET, markets will get the Initial Jobless Claims report, which will provide another snapshot of labor conditions. This weekly figure shows how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time.
Forecasts are pointing to 230,000 claims, up slightly from last week’s 229,000. If claims rise higher than expected, it would signal easing labor demand, which markets may interpret as bullish for both equities and crypto.
But if claims stay low, it could strengthen the case for the Fed to keep policy tight, weighing on risk appetite.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Already Soaring
Even before today’s data, markets were almost certain that the Fed would cut rates soon. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting, a sign that traders believe the central bank is preparing to ease policy.
Together, these labor reports may decide whether today’s trading session tilts toward a bullish or bearish market. Bitcoin, now stuck near $110K, positive news could spark a price jump and boost investor confidence.