The Ethereum (ETH) market has unlocked another wave of bullish momentum after decisively breaking above the long-standing resistance at the $4,000 level. The most prominent altcoin now trades around $4,200, representing an estimated 180% gain from market lows of $1,500 in May 2025. Looking forward, a market analyst with the username CryptoOnChain unveils a potential price trajectory for Ethereum, detailing both short- and long-term outlooks for the asset.
On-Chain Data Shows ETH Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Vulnerable
In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, CryptoOnChain shares insights on Ethereum’s future price movement based on recent exchange activity. The digital asset analyst notes that after rallying from the $2,400 zone, ETH has climbed to around $4,215, just shy of the strong $4,400 resistance level that has historically acted as a significant supply barrier. While momentum indicators such as the MACD and buying volume remain positive, the approach toward this resistance is accompanied by potential for near-term selling pressure.
Meanwhile, CryptoOnChain also reveals that on-chain exchange metrics reveal a divergence between broader market behavior and activity specific to Binance. Notably, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has recorded a steady decline since 2022, now standing at approximately 0.16. This development suggests that investors are steadily moving ETH off trading platforms, thereby reducing sell-side liquidity and strengthening the market confidence in the asset’s long-term price outlook.
However, Binance’s ESR has been climbing since early 2025, now hovering near 0.04. This localized increase indicates that some ETH holders are moving coins back into Binance, potentially for short-term profit taking, arbitrage opportunities, or to participate in exchange-specific programs. Adding to the cautious tone, Binance’s exchange netflow has recently seen a notable surge in positive inflows, as Ethereum nears key resistance at $4,400, signifying potential intent to sell.
The combination of these metrics paints a picture of long-term strength but short-term vulnerability for the Ethereum market. From a macro standpoint, the ongoing decline in the all-exchange ESR points to a healthier supply-demand balance for ETH. However, the localized buildup of ETH on Binance, which is the world’s largest exchange, coupled with heightened net inflows, suggests that sellers may be preparing to take profits in the immediate term.
Ethereum Price Forecast
At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,230, reflecting a 4.62% gain in the last day. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has declined by 12.08%. Considering the current ESR report, CryptoOnChain outlines two scenarios.
In a bullish scenario, a swift drop in Binance net inflows or a leveling off in the exchange’s ESR could open the door for ETH to push decisively past the $4,400 mark, with $4,800 as the next price target amidst the possibility of revisiting all-time highs. Conversely, if strong inflows into Binance persist and the price fails to clear $4,400, ETH could face a short-term pullback, potentially retracing to the $3,950–$4,000 support zone before mounting another breakout attempt.
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