FOMC Meeting Today: Crypto Market Predictions Ahead of FED Interest Rate Decision 

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The cryptocurrency market is holding steady as traders await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision. Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating between $114,600 and $117,100, currently trading in the upper range. Analysts view this setup as constructive, with market sentiment at 68.8%, a level close to peak bullishness.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is respecting its short-term holder cost basis bands. Staying above the 1-month and 3-month realized price levels is seen as a sign of optimism heading into the Fed’s announcement.

Gold Price Today: Record Highs Before the Fed

Gold is also in focus as it trades just under $3,700 per ounce, holding firm near record highs. However, gold mining stocks dipped as investors booked profits ahead of the Fed decision. 

Commenting on this divergence, economist Peter Schiff noted:  “Gold remains strong even as miners take a breather. I expect buyers to come rushing back once the FOMC outcome is known.”

The connection between gold and Bitcoin lies in liquidity. A Fed rate cut not only strengthens gold as a hedge but also channels speculative flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets.

What Markets Expect from Powell’s Speech Today

Traders overwhelmingly expect a 25 basis point cut, with market odds above 90%. Such a move would keep the bullish structure intact for both crypto and gold. Still, analysts warn that front-running and leverage could spark short-term volatility.

Crypto strategist Biupa explained: “A 25 bps cut may continue the uptrend, but we could still see a pullback driven by profit-taking and liquidations, not by deteriorating fundamentals.”

For Bitcoin, the key level to watch is $117,900. A breakout could open the path toward new highs, while rejection might trigger a temporary dip toward the $113,300–$110,000 zone.

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FED Interest Rate Expectations 

While unlikely, a 50 basis point cut could shock markets. In that case, Bitcoin might briefly spike to $120,000 as retail traders rush in before a possible “sell-the-news” reversal if recession fears take hold.

On the other hand, if the Fed were to skip a cut, analysts expect a sharp drop in both crypto and gold, followed by the potential for an emergency larger cut later, which could set the stage for a V-shaped recovery.

The setup closely mirrors September 2024, when the Fed cut rates and Bitcoin initially dipped before doubling to over $100,000 by year-end. With Powell set to speak, traders are bracing for volatility. 

Whether it’s the expected 25 bps cut or a surprise move, the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting could set the tone for the next major trend in Bitcoin, gold, and the broader crypto market.