- The latest research report has reduced the number of qubits required to crack the RSA encryption used in Bitcoin wallets to around 1 million.
- Experts have hinted that while this could spell doom for the industry and the banking sector, it could also help to recover long-lost Bitcoin wallets.
In a previous study co-authored by Google Quantum Researcher Craig Gidney, 20 million noisy qubits were estimated to be enough to break an RSA encryption used in Bitcoin wallets and banking. Gidney has indicated in another research report that the 2048-bit RSA key could be taken down in under a week, with less than 1 million noisy qubits needed.
In Gidney+Ekerå 2019, I co-published an estimate stating that 2048-bit RSA integers could be factored in eight hours by a quantum computer with 20 million noisy qubits. In this paper, I substantially reduce the number of qubits required.
Elaborating on this, Gidney explained that a clear understanding of the cost of quantum attacks on vulnerable cryptosystems is essential to planning the transition to safe cryptosystems. Also, he clarified that this may not happen anytime soon as even the most powerful computer to date, IBM’s Condor, only tops out at 1,121 qubits. Google’s Sycamore is also reported to run on just 53.
Why This Matters
According to our research, Bitcoin basically relies on elliptic curve cryptography, which is very similar to the mathematical principle in RSA. Experts observe that the ability of quantum computers to break RSA at an incredible pace could imply that the days of Bitcoin are numbered.
Experts also argue that even though the 256-bit encryption of Bitcoin is stronger than the earlier RSA keys used in the study, this may not matter much in the face of exponential scaling.
Above all, the pressure on Bitcoin keeps rising as quantum computing research groups, like Project 11, are currently exploring ways to break it. Just recently, Project 11 launched an event called Q-Day Prize to award 1 BTC to break a toy version of Bitcoin’s cryptography.
According to the announcement, this should be done with quantum computers. Basically, the team hinted that computers running Shor’s algorithm should be able to do so due to the Elliptic Curve Cryptography of Bitcoin.
Earlier, Microsoft unveiled a chip – Majorana 1, marking a significant advancement in quantum computers. As detailed in our previous blog post, this accelerated the timeline for practical applications and also raised serious concerns about the security of Bitcoin.
Different Opinions on Quantum Computers
Commenting on this, experts have explained that this jaw-dropping discovery not only puts security pressure on Bitcoin but also on Global Secure Communication, which runs from banking to digital signatures. As highlighted in our previous news brief, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, also believes that the threat is much more serious than is normally presented.
However, the research is significantly important to prepare, as threat actors may already be gathering data for the future. Meanwhile, Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino sees a surprising outcome. According to him, the breakthroughs in quantum computers would rather help to unlock lost wallets and restore forgotten Bitcoins, as explained in our earlier discussion.
Google has, therefore, been encrypting traffic both in Chrome and internally, switching to the standardized version of ML-KEM once it became available.
In the crypto ecosystem, Solana developers have already launched a quantum-resistant storage solution called Winternitz Vault to protect user funds, as discussed earlier. Similarly, Ethereum is believed to be taking steps to prepare for any potential threat, as also indicated in our previous post.
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