Introduction to AUD/USD
The AUD/USD currency pair represents the value of the Australian dollar (AUD) relative to the US dollar (USD) and is one of the most actively traded pairs in the Forex market. The pair is significantly influenced by economic indicators from both Australia and the United States, including interest rate decisions, GDP growth, employment data, and trade balances.
Historical Context and Volatility
The Australian economy’s reliance on natural resources and commodity exports, especially iron ore, coal, and gold, makes the AUD/USD pair sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and demand from major trading partners like China. Additionally, the interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) can impact the exchange rate, with higher interest rates in Australia typically strengthening the AUD. The pair is also influenced by risk sentiment, appreciating during times of global economic optimism and depreciating during periods of economic uncertainty. Trade relations between Australia and major partners, particularly the US and China, play a crucial role, and any changes in trade policies, tariffs, or geopolitical tensions can affect the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook for AUD/USD
After peaking around 0.8000 in February 2021, the AUDUSD has been on a massive downtrend to currently hovering around the 0.6650 region. The pair started the year at 0.68 where sellers dominated the markets, and eventually bottomed at 0.6360 on 19 April after which the AUDUSD posted a strong rebound to test the resistance zone of 0.6700. Throughout May and June, the AUDUSD consolidated in a narrowing range, forming a symmetrical triangle. The symmetrical triangle is typically a continuation pattern, however, as there isn’t a strong bullish trend preceding the pattern, there isn’t a clear directional bias. Despite the lack of clear direction, traders can await for the confirmation by a breakout in either direction. An upside breakout from the triangle would provide opportunity for traders to trade an uptrend towards a price target at 0.687, while a downside breakout would send the pair testing support around 0.6440.
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Phillip Nova (formerly known as Phillip Futures) was inaugurated in 1983 as a member of PhillipCapital Group and is one of the founding clearing members of Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading (SGX-DT). We have since grown to become one of the region’s top brokerages for the trading of Stocks, CFD, Forex, global Futures and Commodities. The Group has clearing memberships in 21 global exchanges, including APEX, BMD, CME Group exchanges, DGCX, HKEX, ICDX, ICE Singapore, JPX Group exchanges, NSE, TFEX, TOCOM and SGX Group exchanges.
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