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Polymarket Recession Odds Spike After Trump Tariff Plan

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By Aggregated - see source on April 4, 2025 Blockchain
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Last updated: April 4, 2025 18:44 EDT

Author

Julia Smith

Author

Julia Smith

About Author

Julia is an experienced editor with a passion for covering a wide variety of beats. She loves all things politics and regularly covers regulatory updates on emerging technology here for Crypto News.

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Last updated:

April 4, 2025 18:44 EDT


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Cryptonews has covered the cryptocurrency industry topics since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journalists and analysts have extensive experience in market analysis and blockchain technologies. We strive to maintain high editorial standards, focusing on factual accuracy and balanced reporting across all areas – from cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects to industry events, products, and technological developments. Our ongoing presence in the industry reflects our commitment to delivering relevant information in the evolving world of digital assets. Read more about Cryptonews

Key Takeaways:

  • In a striking shift, 60% of Polymarket bettors now predict a 2025 recession—a nine-point jump in just 24 hours—immediately following Trump’s dramatic unveiling of sweeping global tariffs.
  • While the Dow cratered nearly 3,700 points in two days amid tariff panic, Bitcoin bucked the trend, climbing to over $84K—a potential signal of investor flight to digital hedges.
  • Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric, framed as economic justice for American workers, has sent shockwaves through financial and prediction markets—fueling fears of a self-inflicted economic slowdown.

A new Polymarket poll shows that the majority of bettors believe that a 2025 recession will happen—just two days after the U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his controversial “Liberation Day” tariff plans on April 2.

Polymarket Bettors Predict Recession In 2025

According to the decentralized prediction market’s poll, 60% of the platform’s participating bettors believe that an economic recession will occur this year.

The surge in bettors’ belief of a probable recession this year is not insignificant, especially considering that the same figure was nine points lower just 24 hours prior.

When the poll was created in January, only 20% of the site’s users voted that a recession would most likely take place in 2025.

Donald Trump’s Tariff Policies Hit Markets

The startling percentage comes shortly after Trump announced steep tariffs on goods from virtually all countries.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far – both friend and foe alike,” Trump said during an April 2 policy unveiling at the White House Rose Garden.

“American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen – we have a lot of them here with us today – they really suffered gravely,” he continued.

The announcement has ignited chaos in the global marketplace, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting an estimated total of 3,700 points over the span of just two days.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 ends the week down -9.1% in its largest weekly drop since March 2020, erasing -$4 TRILLION of market cap.

Today marked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s worst day since March 2020. pic.twitter.com/h02V2tzMR7

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025

The value of Bitcoin, however, was up by 2.6% to slightly above $84,000 on Friday despite having dropped below $82,000 as of yesterday.

Critics argue that Trump’s controversial tariff policies will negatively impact global trade and consumers as a whole, though the president appears unmoved in his belief that his plan will bolster American independence and manufacturing.

With tariffs set to take effect imminently, it’s still unclear how the digital asset industry will be impacted by the potential financial crisis in the long term.




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