Glassnode, the on-chain analytics platform, on Friday flagged a technical on-chain indicator that could shape traders’ expectations for Solana (SOL). “MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for $SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test,” the firm wrote on X.
The market quickly priced in that framework: SOL is trading a little above $210 today, putting it close to the “mean” Glassnode referenced and well below the +0.5σ resistance band. MVRV (market-value to realized-value) bands, and in this case, the standard deviation bands derived from MVRV, are an on-chain tool that highlights where holders are, on average, profitable or underwater and how extreme current valuations are versus historical norms.
When a band that historically capped gains is tested again, it can signal a meaningful battle between buyers and profit-taking sellers. Glassnode’s observation that the +0.5σ band has repeatedly acted as resistance since March 2024 gives traders a concrete level to watch: roughly $275 by the firm’s calculation.
Where Technicals and Market Structure Stand Now
Technically, the recent run has pushed SOL back above the psychologically important $200 level, a threshold several chart analysts say acts as a battleground between bulls and bears. Some market commentators see the current structure as the start of a renewed leg higher: technical analysts argue that a breakout structure could clear a path toward $236 and then higher targets if momentum holds.
Other analysts are more bullish still, pointing to momentum indicators and moving-average crossovers that could support a move toward the $300 zone on a sustained run, a scenario that would still sit below Glassnode’s +0.5σ resistance in some calculations or coincide with a re-rating of that band if realized value shifts. Those calls are contingent on continued demand and macro tailwinds for risk assets.
Solana remains one of the largest crypto networks by market capitalization and continues to show elevated trading volumes and on-chain activity compared with many peers. That said, the Solana price remains sensitive to broader macro news and risk-on flows; headlines around interest-rate expectations and risk appetite have driven short-term moves across the crypto complex in recent weeks. As usual, on-chain signals such as MVRV provide context but are not a guarantee; they should be considered alongside order-book liquidity, macro indicators, and fundamentals.
Overall, Glassnode’s tweet provides a tidy framework for traders: SOL sits near the MVRV “mean” at about $210 today, with the +0.5σ band (≈ $275) identified as the next structural resistance if on-chain demand can hold the mean. Should buying pressure fade, expect classical profit-taking near that band; should demand push through, the on-chain picture would need to be re-interpreted accordingly.
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