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Prediction marketplaces are surging in popularity by transforming speculation and forecasting into a structured, tradable activity. Their roots go back decades with platforms like Iowa Electronic Markets, where researchers used real-money contracts to predict election outcomes. Over time, this evolved into more formalized exchanges like PredictIt and Kashi, which operate under U.S. regulatory oversight.
What makes these marketplaces compelling is how they blend finance, data, and social insights. Users aren’t just betting but rather pooling their collective intelligence. By staking cash or cryptocurrencies on possible outcomes, participants help set real-time prices that reflect the market’s belief about what’s most likely to happen.
While not exclusively a Web3 niche, decentralized blockchain-based markets have helped grow the space, offering transparency, global access, and tokenized forecasts that can be traded or even integrated into DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols. Traditional regulated markets focus on compliance, liquidity, and mainstream accessibility, but have caps and restrictions. Both coexist and at times overlap, but blockchain-based markets push innovation while non-blockchain platforms offer legitimacy and easier points of entry.
Here’s a look at five of the most popular and innovative prediction marketplaces today:
Polymarket
Widely considered the king of decentralized prediction marketplaces, Polymarket is built on Ethereum and Polygon, allowing users to wager on real-world outcomes from everything from politics, crypto prices, sports, business transactions, celebrity-related events, and beyond. Polymarket is renowned for its speedy transactions, rapid market updates, and high-volume trading activity. Despite being blocked for US users due to a CFTC settlement, the platform’s odds are cited by mainstream media outlets when covering sports, politics, trends, and other relevant current events.
Manifold Markets
What makes Manifold Markets unique is its social, gamified approach centered around knowledge sharing rather than pure profit. Users create prediction markets on anything and stake play money (or limited-value tokens) to show confidence in a specific user-created event. Any user can create a new market, and the creator is responsible for its resolution, with the price of a contract representing the implied probability of an event happening. While not built on blockchain rails, the platform provides liquidity through an automated market maker process.
Rain
Rain is a decentralized automated prediction protocol that rolled out its alpha version in September. The protocol utilizes a consensus-driven AI-based oracle called Delphi to generate reliable data compatible with smart contracts, ensuring reliable, tamper-resistant event verification using multiple independent agents and a dispute mechanism. Rain’s automated market maker (AMM) dynamically adjusts pricing based on participation, while its blockchain foundation on Arbitrum provides transparency, security, and worldwide accessibility. Rain allows users to create customized private or public options markets of varying sizes on just about any topic without having to hold the protocol’s native $RAIN token, which supports governance and the ecosystem’s long-term viability.
Robinhood
Known for popularizing commission-free, mobile-first investing and crypto trading among younger demographics, Robinhood has confidently, if not loudly, stepped into prediction-style trading. Thanks to partnerships with Kalshi and others, Robinhood now brings event contracts to its massive base of retail traders. While this branch of its business is still growing, mainstream brokerages are intently watching to see if Robinhood can make the process smooth and convenient. If it succeeds, it could normalize event-based trading for millions, and this may be well worth the regulatory headaches it causes.
Myriad Protocol
Myriad is another new Web3 prediction marketplace making noise. It treats forecasts themselves as tokenized assets, meaning markets and liquidity can evolve dynamically. With an ambitious vision that blurs the lines between forecasting, speculation, and DeFi ingenuity, the protocol supports distribution with revenue sharing, liquidity provisioning, staking, restaking, and more.