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The crypto market is on edge as investors wait for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released on February 12. While most investors expect no major changes in inflation, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, believes there is a real chance that the CPI could come in lower than expected. If that happens, Bitcoin could see a strong rally.
Could CPI Numbers Surprise the Market?
According to Thielen, most market participants are predicting a 2.9% year-on-year (YoY) inflation rate. Core inflation, which excludes food and gas prices, is expected to be at 3.1%.
However, the US Truflation Inflation Index, a real-time inflation tracker, has already dropped from 3.0% to 2.1%. This suggests that inflation may be easing faster than experts think.
“If CPI surprises to the downside at 2.7% or 2.8%, Bitcoin could see a relief rally,” Thielen explained. He pointed out that in January, Bitcoin surged by $10,000 when the inflation report came in at 2.9%, despite fears of rising prices.
Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High?
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $96,170, showing a slight decline over the past week. However, another $10,000 rally, similar to what happened in January, could push Bitcoin close to its all-time high of $109,000.
Meanwhile, Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes Bitcoin could hit new highs soon, especially with gold continuing to break records.
A recent poll conducted by Benjamin Cowen showed that 51.2% of respondents expect Bitcoin to rise after the CPI release.
Therefore the next 24 hours could be crucial, if inflation comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin may see a rally once again. However, if the data disappoints, the market may struggle.