Expectations around XRP exchange-traded funds were seen as a turning point that could unlock new institutional demand and change XRP’s price structure in favor of buyers. However, recent on-chain data suggests the price response has diverged immensely from that narrative.
Metrics tracked by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant point to a very different dynamic unfolding beneath the surface, one that explains why the altcoin continues to struggle for traction despite headline optimism and inflows into Spot XRP ETFs.
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Whale Exchange Inflows Expose Supply Pressure
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals an interesting trend among XRP whale addresses and their activity on crypto exchange Binance. A closer look at the Binance Inflow-Value Band chart shows that recent XRP deposits to exchanges are overwhelmingly concentrated in the 100,000 to 1 million XRP range and transactions exceeding 1 million coins.
These are not retail-sized movements. They reflect activity from large holders moving significant balances onto exchanges, and this behavior aligns with distribution or preparation for selling. The chart showing the exchange inflow into Binance makes this pattern clear, with repeated inflow spikes driven almost entirely by these higher-value bands, while smaller transaction sizes are comparatively lower.
The chart image below shows inflows in chunks between 100,000 XRP and 1 million XRP in purple and inflows of chunks more than 1 million XRP in light blue. Most of the inflows into Binance in the past few days have been characterized by these two cohorts, with a few instances of inflows in chunks between 10,000 XRP and 100,000 XRP.
XRP Ledger: Exchange Inflow Value Bands – Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
This imbalance means that supply is being added to the market by whales at a pace that smaller buyers cannot absorb, and this is why inflows into Spot XRP ETFs have failed to have a positive effect on the altcoin’s price action.
Lower Highs, Lower Lows Confirm Supply Overpowering Demand
As shown in the price action overlaid in the chart above, the coin printed repeatedly lower highs and lower lows after major exchange deposits. This happens because of the relatively low numbers of new spot buyers on Binance, and even moderate selling pressure has been enough to cap rallies.
As it stands, the crypto is facing selling pressure every time it approaches $1.95. Based on the intensity of exchange inflows and the market’s reaction, the first meaningful support zone is between $1.82 and $1.87. However, if large inflows persist, the data suggests the XRP price could continue declining to the $1.50 to $1.66 range.
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The interpretation is that the ETF trend did not translate into sustained spot demand for XRP. Instead, whales who accumulated XRP ahead of ETF approval expectations appear to have used the resulting attention as an opportunity to dump their holdings.
That said, inflows into Spot XRP ETFs may have helped limit deeper downside, as data from SoSoValue shows these funds recorded $82.04 million in inflows over the recent week.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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