Key takeaways
The next crucial altcoin season catalysts could happen in September or October. Will the altcoins remain range-bound in the short term?
Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally to $123K triggered by the passage of the GENIUS Act into law lifted the broader sector and led to a mini altcoin season in July.
But the latest altseason wave has lost steam as BTC consolidates below $120K.
Still, the altcoin season index, an indicator that tracks the pace of the altcoin rally, has dipped below 50% after spiking to 60% on the 1st of July.
Source: Blockchain Center
In 2023 and early 2025, the indicator consolidated near 50% for about two months before either advancing or fully retracing the altcoin run.
So, will it take a similar period, and what will trigger the next altcoin rally?
Potential altcoin season catalysts
AMBCrypto is currently tracking three potential catalysts that could fuel the next phase of the altcoin recovery.
The first potential catalyst is a cut in Federal interest rates. As of now, markets expect no change at the July 30th meeting.
However, there’s a 63.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, signaling a shift in expectations that could impact crypto and broader risk assets.
A new risk-on environment could be created if the Fed slashes rates in September.
Source: CME Fed Watch
Additionally, the recent BTC ATH above $120K was driven by the passage of the stablecoin bill, the GENIUS Act.
If the trend repeats, the passage of the broader comprehensive market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, could juice the markets, too.
Lawmakers have set the deadline for passing the CLARITY Act by the end of September. If the Fed cuts rates and the bill becomes law, the end of Q3 could spark a major rally in BTC and altcoins.
Another key catalyst could be altcoin ETF approval, including the staking offerings for Solana [SOL] and Ethereum [ETH]. But analysts have pointed out that this could happen by October.
That said, the current altcoin season snapshot still showed the conditions needed for the wave were still intact.
Notably, the ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks ETH relative strength against BTC, was still at recent highs.
Source: Altcoin season indicators, TradingView
Additionally, the BTC and USDT dominance had retreated lower, suggesting that altcoins recovered modestly and there was available stablecoin liquidity to drive the rally.
In short, only the right trigger was needed to spark the next wave of the altcoin season.
And this might happen in September or October from Fed rate cuts, passage of of CLARITY Act or the altcoin ETF approvals.
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