XRP has entered a new phase in its growth as Spot XRP ETFs begin trading across the United States. The excitement surrounding institutional access to XRP has grown quickly in recent weeks, especially as filings and inflow reports hint at rising interest from funds preparing to scale their exposure.
A market commentator known as Chad Steingraber presented a projection showing just how intense ETF accumulation could become if issuers adopt an acquisition strategy similar to what was seen in Bitcoin ETFs. The estimates outline an aggressive period of accumulation that could reduce XRP’s available supply far faster than many expect, and here are the numbers.
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A Breakdown Of Steingraber’s Projection
Steingraber’s first scenario examines a modest but steady accumulation model where 12 Spot XRP ETF issuers acquire an average of 3million XRP per day. His projection is based on focusing on the average rather than trying to predict which fund accumulates the most, because the combined impact is what ultimately matters for XRP’s market price.
Under this setup, daily inflows would reach up to 36 million XRP. Over a standard five-day trading week, that accumulation would climb to 160 million XRP. Over the course of a month, the amount absorbed by ETFs would increase to 720 million XRP. By the end of a full year, this single projection implies that as much as 8.64 billion XRP could be removed from public circulation and locked into ETFs.
Of course, these numbers only take into account the possibility of consecutive net inflow days and no net outflow days. Although these figures are hypothetical, the pace aligns with the early patterns seen in Bitcoin ETFs, where strong averages across issuers created a sustained demand for Bitcoin.
A More Aggressive Scenario Based On Recent Activity
In another post, Steingraber offered a more forceful accumulation model using the activity of Bitwise’s Spot XRP ETF as a benchmark. Data shows that the Bitwise XRP ETF received inflows of about 5.82 million XRP in its first trading day. In this second scenario, the projected daily acquisition rate is doubled to about 6 million XRP per issuer.
If 12 funds follow this pattern, the combined accumulation could hit 72 million XRP every day. Extending the same five-day cycle, the weekly total would rise toward 360 million XRP, while monthly totals would reach approximately 1.44 billion XRP. Over a full year, this more aggressive model ends with 17.28 billion XRP absorbed into ETF products.
“The entire XRP public supply will be gone UNLESS THE PRICE GOES ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH,” Steingraber said.
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The projections serve as a wake-up call on how quickly XRP’s supply ecosystem might change once ETF inflows stabilize and larger issuers like Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, CoinShares, Franklin, 21Shares and WisdomTree get in on the action.
However, BlackRock, which oversees the largest Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, is yet to make any move on a Spot XRP ETF. The company had confirmed in August that it has no immediate plans to file for one.
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