Altcoin Season on the Horizon: Is the Crypto Rotation Finally Here?

Altcoin Season on the Horizon?

After Bitcoin’s (BTC/USDT) failed assault on $100K and a correction to the $90K+ zone, the market buzz is building for another attempt at six figures. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has surged to 61, inching closer to the magical 75+ mark that signals a full-blown altseason. Thanksgiving could become even sweeter if altcoins start taking the spotlight—but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

While early signs of altcoin strength are emerging, emotional decisions can be costly. To time this transition properly, we turn to three critical charts:

3. TOTAL2 – The total market cap of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, for macro confirmation.

Let’s dissect the evidence before jumping to conclusions.

Chart 1: BTC Dominance (BTC.D) – Weekly

Bitcoin dominance remains in a precarious position within a rising channel on the weekly timeframe, where three critical levels dictate the narrative:

1. Horizontal Support (~58%):

o This multi-year pivot zone has historically acted as a foundation for BTC dominance. Losing it would significantly weaken Bitcoin’s hold on the market.

2. Channel Support (Lower Border):

o The rising channel has defined BTC dominance since early 2023. A break below it would suggest a structural shift, favoring altcoins.

3. 50-Week Moving Average (~55.5%):

o This dynamic level has acted as a trend decider. Losing it would further solidify bearish dominance for Bitcoin and strengthen the case for altseason.

What to Watch:

• A breakdown below all three levels, potentially confirmed by a retest from below, would validate a rotation into altcoins.

• Beware of temporary dominance spikes during flash crashes, as Bitcoin often serves as a safe haven during volatility.

Chart 2: ETH/BTC – Daily

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin offers a critical view of altcoin strength. The pair has shown signs of life, attempting to break out of a descending channel after months of underperformance. Key observations include:

1. Resistance at 0.038:

o ETH/BTC is battling the upper boundary of its descending channel and the 50-day moving average. A decisive breakout here could mark the beginning of a trend reversal.

2. Key Market Structure Level at 0.0415:

o Reclaiming 0.0415 is critical for confirming a bullish market structure and positioning Ethereum as the leader of the altcoin rally.

3. Volume Support:

o Recent increases in trading volume suggest growing investor confidence. Paired with a breakout, this could confirm a reversal.