News
Glassnode said Bitcoin has returned below the $84K-$85K band as ETF inflows cooled and volatility dropped to summer 2023 levels before the Fed decision.
Bitcoin has slipped back below the $84,000-$85,000 band that briefly gave way around its September high, with Glassnode saying the move comes as ETF demand has faded, volatility has compressed and sellers have remained relatively restrained. The report, published Oct. 28, 2026, framed the market as range-bound ahead of the Federal Reserve decision later that day.
ETF flows and trading volume have weakened
Glassnode said most of the $653 million that flowed into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 19 had already left again by Oct. 22, including $540 million out that day, leaving just $67 million net inflows over the prior two weeks. It also said ETF trading volume has been thin since May, averaging about $1.3 billion a day and falling to about $700 million on Oct. 23, one of the quietest sessions of the year. On Glassnode’s reading, that leaves the funds contributing little incremental demand at current prices.
The report said bitcoin was trading just under the U.S. Spot ETF Cost Basis of $81.5K, the average price paid by ETF holders. It added that a daily close back above that level would put the average ETF holder back in profit.
Support and resistance have narrowed
According to Glassnode, long-term holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85K and $118K, with more than half of those coins acquired above the current price. That creates overhead supply if price recovers toward the band, the report said. On the downside, the densest short-term holder cluster sits near $77K, with another group around $64K from the 2026 lows.
Glassnode also pointed to bid support on Binance spot books shifting lower. It said the $80K bids were swept on Oct. 24 and had not refilled, while bids at $78K-$79K had grown to about $42 million from about $24 million in mid-October. The report described that area as the first likely zone where buyers may step in on a dip.
Volatility has compressed as losses shrink
One-month realized volatility has fallen to about 25%, according to Glassnode, roughly back to summer 2023 levels and below its usual range over the past year. The report said bitcoin has been calmer than this on only about 5% of days since 2015. It also noted that the last two volatility lows, 18% in August 2023 and 22% in August 2026, each came just before a sharp move.
Glassnode said holders have been realizing smaller losses on each dip since August. At the August low, realized losses exceeded profits by about $630 million in a day, while the Oct. 24 sweep produced a largest daily net loss of about $27 million. The report cautioned that one Oct. 22 spike in realized profit and loss was driven by an internal transfer and should not be treated as selling pressure.
Macro backdrop remains cautious
The report said the U.S. Leading Economic Index has stalled and U.S. Consumer Confidence has fallen 7.1 points over two months to 48.1, close to its lowest level since 2009. It linked that backdrop to the Fed decision on Oct. 28, noting that another rate increase would further tighten conditions for risk assets including bitcoin.
Glassnode concluded that bitcoin remains quiet and range-bound, with support below at the Binance bid wall and the True Market Mean near $77.9K, while resistance sits at $84K-$85K. The report said a daily close above $85K would be the first step toward restoring the upper band as support, while a close below the True Market Mean would shift attention to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $75.8K. The timing of the next catalyst beyond the Fed decision was not specified in the source material.
Credit: Source link
