Key takeaways
- ADA is trading below key resistance zones, signaling a bearish near-term bias and limiting recovery attempts.
- Whales are reducing their exposure to ADA, which could lead to further price decline.
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, hovering below $0.250 on Friday as price action remains subdued beneath key resistance zones.
On-chain data from Santiment indicates that certain whale wallets have begun reducing their holdings, adding to selling pressure.
Whales reduce exposure amid shifting accumulation trends
Santiment’s Supply Distribution data points to a weakening outlook for Cardano as large-wallet investors adjust their positions. Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and 1 million–10 million ADA have collectively offloaded around 80 million tokens since April 19.
Furthermore, wallets in the 10 million–100 million ADA range have accumulated approximately 60 million ADA over the same period.
This divergence suggests a rotation in holdings: mid-sized whales are selling, while larger entities are absorbing supply. Such behavior often reflects distribution at elevated levels, increasing short-term downside risk.
Cardano’s derivatives data present a mixed outlook with a slight bearish tilt. CoinGlass data shows open interest falling to $444 million on Friday, down from $490 million on April 18. This indicates declining trader participation and weakening speculative demand.
Additionally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.80, its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1 indicates bearish positioning, with more traders expecting price declines.
Despite that, the funding rate paints a bullish narrative. The OI-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and currently sits at 0.0076%, suggesting that long positions are paying shorts—often interpreted as a mild bullish signal.
Cardano price outlook: bears continue to halt recovery
The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano remains technically weak, trading below $0.250.
The coin is facing immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.258, followed by $0.269 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-day EMA at $0.294.
Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51, while the MACD is flat just above zero, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.
If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is found at $0.245. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further losses toward $0.220, a key prior-cycle support zone.
However, if the bulls regain control and close above the $0.258 resistance, it would be the first sign of recovery strength, potentially opening the path toward $0.269 and higher resistance levels near $0.294 and $0.299.
An extended bullish reversal would require a move above $0.323 and eventually toward the 200-day EMA near $0.383.
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