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Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner at Equity Management Associates, shared his views on the future of gold and Bitcoin amidst potential economic turmoil. In a recent discussion with Stephan Livera, Lepard speculated that we are approaching a pivotal moment he terms the “next big print,” which could trigger major price movements in both assets.
He expects that within the next six to 18 months, the financial system may face a crisis—whether from the bond market, the stock market, or another source—forcing governments to inject liquidity into the economy. Lepard believes that when this occurs, Bitcoin could soar to between $300,000 and $350,000, exceeding its previous highs, while gold could rise to between $4,000 and $5,000.
However, Lepard warns of the potential for severe deflation, which could lead to a liquidity crisis despite government efforts to stabilize the economy. In such a scenario, he predicts Bitcoin may retreat to around $85,000 to $100,000, while gold could also face a significant correction.
Looking further ahead, Lepard envisions a second wave of monetary intervention that could result in even more drastic outcomes. He suggests that in a worst-case scenario, as economic conditions worsen, governments might resort to Universal Basic Income (UBI) measures to support struggling families. He foresees Bitcoin potentially reaching a million dollars and gold climbing to between $20,000 and $40,000 during this period of heightened economic distress.
Lepard’s analysis is influenced by the concept of the “fourth turning,” which posits that societal and economic cycles tend to repeat every 80 to 100 years. He believes we are currently in such a turn, which may result in a major reset of the financial system around 2027 to 2031.
Despite the dire outlook, Lepard remains optimistic about the future, arguing that advancements in technology—like AI and nuclear energy—could lead to improvements in living standards. He asserts that a more decentralized financial system could alleviate societal strife and prevent conflicts fueled by centralized government control.