Is rejection a bullish sign for Monad [MON]?
For context, the $60 million liquidity program of the Monad Foundation has recently been closed. The said program provided early investors with an opportunity to sell their portion of the locked MON supply at a discount. The tokens purchased by the Foundation will also remain locked until their respective unlock dates.
The key takeaway? Almost all the initial offers were rejected. In other words, most investors preferred to HODL their shares of the initial supply of MON rather than sell them off at a discounted price. From a supply-demand standpoint, this development is overall positive for the token’s performance.
That being said, the original purpose of this move by the Foundation can’t be ignored.
To clarify, the Monad Foundation launched the $60 million liquidity program to potentially prevent the selling pressure from early investors, who hold around 19.7 billion MON, nearly 20% of the original supply. So, from a technical perspective, this could be an interesting setup for Monad.
In this context, the rejection by early investors can’t directly be seen as a bullish signal. Notably, when we look at MON’s technical setup, it adds more weight to this thesis, suggesting the Foundation’s move could be less about boosting MON and more about managing selling pressure ahead of the November unlocks.
Monad faces a key supply test ahead of November
Q4 has already proven to be a challenging period for Monad.
The upcoming unlocks could provide additional selling pressure for MON, with the first significant investor unlocks scheduled to occur in November. Against this backdrop, the rejection of the $60 million liquidity program by early investors could signal strength, as most of them chose to HODL rather than sell, potentially reducing selling pressure around the November unlocks.
That said, the technical setup of MON contradicts the aforementioned thesis. As the chart below shows, the price of Monad has been in consolidation below $0.025 for over a month with bulls failing to make any progress. Meanwhile, MON is forming lower highs, suggesting that the overall trend remains bearish.
The next critical level to watch is $0.019-$0.020. A break below it will improve the chances of a bearish scenario, whereas a rebound above $0.021-$0.022 would suggest that bulls are stepping back in. However, MON’s recent intraday weakness shows that bears remain in control.
In this context, the early investors’ rejection of the Foundation’s program isn’t necessarily bullish. By choosing not to sell, they also leave those locked tokens outside the Foundation’s control, meaning the potential supply overhang remains ahead of the November unlocks.
This puts more focus on Monad’s price structure. If buyers fail to defend $0.019-$0.020, the token could see another leg lower.
Final Summary
- Most early investors chose to HODL, but November unlocks could still add selling pressure.
- MON remains weak below $0.025, with $0.019–$0.020 as the key support zone.
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