Strategy Now Tracking Bitcoin’s 200-Week Average

A New Metric on Strategy’s Dashboard

Strategy’s executive chairman noted that the company is now tracking bitcoin’s 200-week moving average and its premium to that level on the firm’s public dashboard. Saylor said that since the 200-week measure became available, bitcoin has traded above it 92% of the time, and that today the price sits almost exactly on the line.

The addition follows a pattern of Saylor and his team rolling out new metrics, like Net BTC and BTC Hurdle ARR, to reconfigure how the market and Strategy’s own shareholders read the company’s $64 billion bitcoin bet. The 200-week average has long served as a floor signal for bitcoin bulls, since the metric marked the end of past bear markets and rarely gets broken to the downside for long.

Why the Timing Matters

Bitcoin broke below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2022 earlier this year, a move potentially tied to a jobs report that reset expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bitcoin has since clawed back toward that line, trading around $62,500 as of press time, which is roughly where Saylor’s “almost exactly on the line” comment places it.

During Strategy’s second-quarter earnings call, Saylor had already flagged the 200-week average as the right price signal to watch, describing it as a pretty up-and-to-the-right message and urging investors to treat a test of that level as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. Adding a live premium tracker to the dashboard turns that talking point into a metric shareholders and outside analysts can watch in real time.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Math

It bears mentioning that the tracker arrives as Strategy’s own bitcoin math has gotten more complicated given the company holds 843,775 BTC, bought for a combined $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476 per coin (which means the current price of roughly $62,500 leaves Strategy’s overall position underwater on a cost-basis view even as the 200-week average signals long-term support).

Moreover, Bitcoin.com News reported that Strategy’s second-quarter filings showed the company swinging from a $14 billion profit to an $8.2 billion loss as Saylor sold bitcoin to fund shareholder distributions for the first time since 2022.

That shift also ended four years of Saylor’s public “never sell” pledge as Strategy sold 3,588 BTC in early July for about $216 million, a move the company says was tied to funding dividends on its STRC perpetual preferred stock rather than a change in long-term conviction. Saylor has continued to reject characterizations that the sales signal a change in strategy, telling reporters at points throughout the year that the company remains a buyer over any longer time horizon.

Saylor Still Signaling More Buying

Even with the cost-basis math looking rough, Saylor has kept sending buy signals alongside the new tracker. Yesterday, he posted “Bitcoin Drive engaged” alongside Strategy’s acquisition tracker, a message that fueled speculation the company would announce another bitcoin purchase, following a similar coded post before the firm disclosed a larger cash reserve in late July.

Saylor has also pushed back directly on viral claims that Strategy newly authorized a $5 billion bitcoin sale, telling reporters the authorization was old news tied to the company’s existing Digital Credit Capital Framework rather than a fresh decision to sell.

Analysts have offered a cautious read on where bitcoin goes from the 200-week line while Saylor himself has pointed to a handful of factors holding the price back this cycle, including softer institutional flows and macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. That said, he maintains that the long-term trend line still favors buyers testing this level.