Jessie A Ellis
Jun 21, 2026 04:02
A June 11-17 AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults put President Donald Trump’s approval at 37%, unchanged as a tentative U.S.-Iran deal emerged and 53% said U.S. actions went too far.
Fed Hold Bets Surge: Polymarket “No Change” Jumps to 77.5% as Trump Approval Holds at 37% and Iran War Truce Emerges
President Donald Trump’s approval rating held steady at 37% in a new poll taken as the U.S. reached a tentative agreement with Iran to end the war. On Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in July?” ladder, the leading “No change” outcome rose to 77.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 71.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “No change” after the July 2026 Fed meeting at 77.5% (Yes 77.5% / No 22.5%).
- Odds moved higher as the latest poll and Iran war-related developments coincided with a repricing toward policy stability.
- The market resolves on July 29, 2026; “No change” is down 2.0 points over the past 7 days.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating was unchanged from last month at 37% in a new Associated Press-NORC poll conducted June 11-17 among 3,040 U.S. adults with a 2.8-point margin of error. The poll was taken as the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative agreement to end the war, though a majority of respondents said U.S. actions in Iran had gone too far. In the survey, 53% said U.S. military action against Iran had gone too far, down six points from March after U.S. attacks launched on Feb. 28. The same poll put Trump’s approval for handling the Iran war at 34%, also unchanged from the prior month. Separately, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted June 12-15 showed Trump’s approval at 36%, up one point from early June, and reported higher approval on cost-of-living handling than in a May release.
Polymarket Data: $14.37M Matched on “Fed Decision in July?” as 77.5% Prices a Hold, 20.9% a 25 bps Hike, and 1.05% a 25
Polymarket trading in the “Fed Decision in July?” ladder shows $14,374,861 in matched volume, with “No change” at Yes 77.5% / No 22.5% to lead the board. A 25 bps increase is priced at Yes 20.9% / No 79.1%, while a 25 bps decrease sits at Yes 1.05% / No 98.95%. Tail outcomes are heavily discounted, with a 50+ bps increase at Yes 0.55% / No 99.45% and a 50+ bps decrease at Yes 0.45% / No 99.55%. The skew toward “No change” implies traders see the July 29, 2026 decision as far more likely to be a hold than any move, with rate-cut probabilities concentrated near the floor of the ladder.
Watch whether the “No change” contract continues to hold above the mid-70s and whether pricing shifts toward the 25 bps increase rung as liquidity builds into the July 29, 2026 resolution.
Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume U.S. Politics and Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the July decision ladder, Polymarket traders are also concentrating liquidity in longer-horizon macro bets that speak to the broader path of policy over the year. In “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”, the leading outcome is 81.05% for “0 (0 bps)” on $37,145,769 in matched volume, underscoring a market leaning toward a steady-rate baseline even as crosscurrents from Washington and abroad keep volatility elevated.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -2.0 |
| 7d | -2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Fed Decision in July?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jul 29, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$14,374,861
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| No change | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 25 bps increase | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.1% | 99.0% |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.6% | 99.5% |
+1 more strikes not shown
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