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Arthur Hayes does not deal in vague timelines. Speaking at the Cointelegraph booth at Bitcoin Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder put a specific window on Bitcoin’s return to six figures: after the northern hemispheric summer.
“I think we’re going to hit $100,000 after the northern hemispheric summer,” Hayes said, “mostly because the dollar liquidity situation is improving.”
His reasoning is macro rather than technical. Wartime financing through commercial banks in the US and other economies is injecting liquidity into the system in ways that are beginning to show up in risk asset performance. Bitcoin, he argued, is already starting to outperform the NASDAQ and US tech stocks as a result of this dynamic, and he expects that outperformance to continue into the autumn.
On the question of whether new all-time highs are possible this year, Hayes was measured but bullish. “I think we could get through $125,000 by the end of the year.”
The Iran Variable
Hayes acknowledged the Iran conflict as the key risk to his timeline but said markets are already looking past it. He pointed to oil price spreads as evidence that supply is moving through the Strait of Hormuz in sufficient quantities to prevent a complete breakdown, even if politicians are publicly characterising the situation as unresolved.
“If you assume the Iran war is not going to get super duper messed up, then I think markets look past that,” he said. “There’s enough stuff coming through the street, even though the politicians claim it’s close.”
Where He Is Putting His Own Money
Hayes recently bought over a million dollars of Hyperliquid, describing it as the only altcoin that genuinely matters right now. His thesis is simple: real clients spending real money on a platform that is generating actual revenue and returning value to token holders through buybacks or staking rewards. Everything else, including Dogecoin as an altcoin season indicator, he dismissed entirely.
“If you’re not doing any of those things, I don’t care about you,” he said.