XRP climbs above $1.15 as derivatives activity improves despite market fear

Key takeaways

• XRP climbed to around $1.15 on Monday as retail traders cautiously returned to the derivatives market.
• XRP futures open interest increased from $2.28 billion to $2.44 billion, signaling renewed speculative activity.

Ripple (XRP) edged higher on Monday, trading around $1.15 as risk appetite showed tentative signs of recovery across the cryptocurrency market. While broader sentiment remains fragile, derivatives data suggest retail traders are gradually returning to the market after weeks of caution.

The modest recovery comes amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop and renewed geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Geopolitical risks keep investors on edge

Risk-off sentiment remains the dominant market theme as digital assets struggle to sustain gains following a brief rebound over the weekend. Investor caution intensified after Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since the ceasefire agreement reached on April 8.

Despite the cautious environment, XRP derivatives activity recorded a modest increase. Open Interest (OI) in XRP perpetual futures rose to an average of $2.44 billion on Monday, up from $2.28 billion previously. The increase suggests traders are gradually re-entering the market and taking on additional exposure, even as uncertainty remains elevated.

The rise in futures positioning points to renewed speculative interest, although the increase remains relatively modest compared to previous bullish periods.

Ripple price forecast: XRP faces heavy technical resistance

Although XRP has managed to rebound toward $1.15, the broader technical picture remains bearish.

The token continues to trade below its key moving averages, including the 50-day EMA at $1.33, 100-day EMA at $1.41, and the 200-day EMA at $1.63

These levels create a significant overhead resistance zone that could limit upside momentum.

Additional bearish signals come from the SuperTrend indicator, which remains negative around $1.26, and a descending trendline whose breakout point is located near $1.52. Together, these indicators suggest that rallies may continue to encounter selling pressure.

Technical momentum indicators continue to favor the bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 32 on the daily chart, reflecting weak buying momentum despite the recent bounce. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains below the zero line, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend.

These indicators suggest that downside risks remain elevated unless XRP can reclaim key resistance levels.

While XRP has shown resilience by reclaiming the $1.15 level, the token remains trapped within a broader bearish structure. Improving derivatives activity and continued ETF inflows offer encouraging signs, but weak market sentiment and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to cap upside potential.

For a stronger recovery to develop, XRP will need to overcome multiple resistance barriers while broader risk appetite across the crypto market improves. Until then, traders remain focused on whether support around $1.05 and the critical $1.00 threshold can withstand further selling pressure.